January Sales & Pricing

by | Feb 3, 2011 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 13 comments

Here’s the preliminary look at last month’s detached sales, and how they compared with 2009/2010:

January Detached Sales/Price-Per-SF

Town Zip Jan ’09 Jan ’10 Jan ’11
Cardiff 92007 1/$563 3/$353 4/$586
Carlsbad NW 92008 4/$274 7/$339 6/$329
Carlsbad SE 92009 21/$276 31/$270 26/$249
Carlsbad NE 92010 6/$220 4/$218 10/$239
Carlsbad SW 92011 8/$262 4/$293 14/$274
Del Mar 92014 7/$592 6/$482 5/$701
Encinitas 92024 21/$353 21/$344 18/$340
La Jolla 92037 14/$865 12/$527 16/$585
W. O-side 92054 20/$220 6/$361 10/$198
Poway 92064 20/$246 22/$273 25/$251
RSF 67+91 4/$496 11/$471 13/$469
Solana Bch 92075 7/$507 10/$525 4/$422
S. San Mrcs 92078 34/$204 21/$202 23/$211
N. Vista 92084 27/$157 29/$181 11/$220
East RB 92128 30/$262 19/$272 24/$260
RP 92129 11/$262 19/$277 24/$260
Carmel Vly 92130 21/$358 28/$348 22/$312
Scripps Rch 92131 13/$288 13/$273 16/$265
Total All Above 291/$305 291/$304 280/$308
Total All SD Co. 1,490/$218 1,269/$232 1,149/$229

I do double-check the stats that look unusual. The local totals for 2009 and 2010 were that close together – and comparing all three shows how steady it’s been around here lately.

13 Comments

  1. Kathy
    Kathy on February 3, 2011 at 6:40 am

    Carmel Valley down almost $50 sq ft. Surprised at that given demand for houses here.

  2. pemeliza
    pemeliza on February 3, 2011 at 8:20 am

    Cardiff has been hanging tough particularly west of the I-5.

  3. Jinx
    Jinx on February 3, 2011 at 9:24 am

    Thanks for including “west oside”. Looks like we’ve been getting hammered! Down from $361 to $198? Holy cow.

  4. Mozart
    Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 9:45 am

    Nice stable market for now. Spring will ramp up with more supply but not too much like last year. More Buyers will be ready to pull the trigger. Also, more supply by the banks but not too much. And a better mix of middle and upper tier houses to move home values up at least in terms of median. I estimate existing single family residences will have a 7% year over year price increase for SD County 2011.

  5. Genius
    Genius on February 3, 2011 at 9:53 am

    #3 – One or two sales in St. Malo could throw those numbers way off. I wonder if that’s what happened in 1/10.

    Bummer that there’s no metric for measuring quality YOY. Do those Del Mar numbers include all of 92014?

  6. Chuck Ponzi
    Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 11:24 am

    Well… big question.

    Is this “stable” as in Yunie “scraping along the bottom” or…
    Is this “stable” as in “the new normal”

    That’s the real question.

    Chuck

  7. GeneK
    GeneK on February 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm

    You’ve got us listed twice in 92078. The folks in 92069 will be feeling left out. 🙂

  8. Mozart
    Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    Ponzi- let’s hear your prediction for San Diego County real estate in 2011. Up or down? And, by how much?

    Here, I’ll start your answer for you;

    2011 RE = -X%

  9. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    stable = ?

    Everyone from Yunnie on up has said we’d bounce along the bottom, but around NSDCC in January the stats are flat, with no bouncing.

    The reality is that there will be individual sales, like the Camphor short-sale (an obvious fraud) that’ll look like a steal, and other high-quality properties that ‘ll look like retail-plus.

  10. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    Thanks Gene, I took it out. I’m not much of a 92069 guy.

  11. livinincali
    livinincali on February 3, 2011 at 3:01 pm

    Anything inside of +/- 5% is probably the consensus for home prices at this point and rarely do things hit the consensus. Looks like the long bond yields might be ready to break out to the upside which would force mortgage rates up and we now have a trend of declining median price/sqft for the past 6 months. I’m going to go with > 10% decline in SD county home prices for 2011.

  12. Chuck Ponzi
    Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    Mozart…

    You think it’ll be negative? That’s surprising. I thought you believed it was going to be positive every year?

    I’d say it’s going to be flat to slow appreciation. Maybe +1-5%. I think the years of down median prices is over. (though there’s risk to that, mostly around how banks manage inventory and foreclosures. There is simply not enough supply that can close

    Much of that will be a change in mix to higher priced homes, but good nonetheless. If SD is like OC (and I think it is very similar), there is quite a bit of strength in socal real estate, much more than I thought there was going to be.

    chuck

  13. Blurtman
    Blurtman on February 6, 2011 at 1:17 pm

    $340/sq.ft. in Encinitas? It’ll be closer to $200 before all is said and done. Good luck catching these falling knives.

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