January Sales & Pricing

North County Coastal | Sales and Price Check

Written by Jim the Realtor

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February 3, 2011

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13 Comments

Here’s the preliminary look at last month’s detached sales, and how they compared with 2009/2010:

January Detached Sales/Price-Per-SF

Town	Zip	Jan ’09	Jan ’10	Jan ’11
Cardiff	92007	1/$563	3/$353	4/$586
Carlsbad NW	92008	4/$274	7/$339	6/$329
Carlsbad SE	92009	21/$276	31/$270	26/$249
Carlsbad NE	92010	6/$220	4/$218	10/$239
Carlsbad SW	92011	8/$262	4/$293	14/$274
Del Mar	92014	7/$592	6/$482	5/$701
Encinitas	92024	21/$353	21/$344	18/$340
La Jolla	92037	14/$865	12/$527	16/$585
W. O-side	92054	20/$220	6/$361	10/$198
Poway	92064	20/$246	22/$273	25/$251
RSF	67+91	4/$496	11/$471	13/$469
Solana Bch	92075	7/$507	10/$525	4/$422
S. San Mrcs	92078	34/$204	21/$202	23/$211
N. Vista	92084	27/$157	29/$181	11/$220
East RB	92128	30/$262	19/$272	24/$260
RP	92129	11/$262	19/$277	24/$260
Carmel Vly	92130	21/$358	28/$348	22/$312
Scripps Rch	92131	13/$288	13/$273	16/$265
Total	All Above	291/$305	291/$304	280/$308
Total	All SD Co.	1,490/$218	1,269/$232	1,149/$229

I do double-check the stats that look unusual. The local totals for 2009 and 2010 were that close together – and comparing all three shows how steady it’s been around here lately.

13 Comments

Kathy on February 3, 2011 at 6:40 am

Carmel Valley down almost $50 sq ft. Surprised at that given demand for houses here.
pemeliza on February 3, 2011 at 8:20 am

Cardiff has been hanging tough particularly west of the I-5.
Jinx on February 3, 2011 at 9:24 am

Thanks for including “west oside”. Looks like we’ve been getting hammered! Down from $361 to $198? Holy cow.
Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 9:45 am

Nice stable market for now. Spring will ramp up with more supply but not too much like last year. More Buyers will be ready to pull the trigger. Also, more supply by the banks but not too much. And a better mix of middle and upper tier houses to move home values up at least in terms of median. I estimate existing single family residences will have a 7% year over year price increase for SD County 2011.
Genius on February 3, 2011 at 9:53 am

#3 – One or two sales in St. Malo could throw those numbers way off. I wonder if that’s what happened in 1/10.

Bummer that there’s no metric for measuring quality YOY. Do those Del Mar numbers include all of 92014?
Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 11:24 am

Well… big question.

Is this “stable” as in Yunie “scraping along the bottom” or…
Is this “stable” as in “the new normal”

That’s the real question.

Chuck
GeneK on February 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm

You’ve got us listed twice in 92078. The folks in 92069 will be feeling left out. 🙂
Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm

Ponzi- let’s hear your prediction for San Diego County real estate in 2011. Up or down? And, by how much?

Here, I’ll start your answer for you;

2011 RE = -X%
Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:45 pm

stable = ?

Everyone from Yunnie on up has said we’d bounce along the bottom, but around NSDCC in January the stats are flat, with no bouncing.

The reality is that there will be individual sales, like the Camphor short-sale (an obvious fraud) that’ll look like a steal, and other high-quality properties that ‘ll look like retail-plus.
Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm

Thanks Gene, I took it out. I’m not much of a 92069 guy.
livinincali on February 3, 2011 at 3:01 pm

Anything inside of +/- 5% is probably the consensus for home prices at this point and rarely do things hit the consensus. Looks like the long bond yields might be ready to break out to the upside which would force mortgage rates up and we now have a trend of declining median price/sqft for the past 6 months. I’m going to go with > 10% decline in SD county home prices for 2011.
Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 5:42 pm

Mozart…

You think it’ll be negative? That’s surprising. I thought you believed it was going to be positive every year?

I’d say it’s going to be flat to slow appreciation. Maybe +1-5%. I think the years of down median prices is over. (though there’s risk to that, mostly around how banks manage inventory and foreclosures. There is simply not enough supply that can close

Much of that will be a change in mix to higher priced homes, but good nonetheless. If SD is like OC (and I think it is very similar), there is quite a bit of strength in socal real estate, much more than I thought there was going to be.

chuck
Blurtman on February 6, 2011 at 1:17 pm

$340/sq.ft. in Encinitas? It’ll be closer to $200 before all is said and done. Good luck catching these falling knives.