13 Comments

1. 

   Kathy on February 3, 2011 at 6:40 am

   Carmel Valley down almost $50 sq ft. Surprised at that given demand for houses here.

2. 

   pemeliza on February 3, 2011 at 8:20 am

   Cardiff has been hanging tough particularly west of the I-5.

3. 

   Jinx on February 3, 2011 at 9:24 am

   Thanks for including “west oside”. Looks like we’ve been getting hammered! Down from $361 to $198? Holy cow.

4. 

   Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 9:45 am

   Nice stable market for now. Spring will ramp up with more supply but not too much like last year. More Buyers will be ready to pull the trigger. Also, more supply by the banks but not too much. And a better mix of middle and upper tier houses to move home values up at least in terms of median. I estimate existing single family residences will have a 7% year over year price increase for SD County 2011.

5. 

   Genius on February 3, 2011 at 9:53 am

   #3 – One or two sales in St. Malo could throw those numbers way off. I wonder if that’s what happened in 1/10.

   Bummer that there’s no metric for measuring quality YOY. Do those Del Mar numbers include all of 92014?

6. 

   Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 11:24 am

   Well… big question.

   Is this “stable” as in Yunie “scraping along the bottom” or…
   Is this “stable” as in “the new normal”

   That’s the real question.

   Chuck

7. 

   GeneK on February 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm

   You’ve got us listed twice in 92078. The folks in 92069 will be feeling left out. 🙂

8. 

   Mozart on February 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm

   Ponzi- let’s hear your prediction for San Diego County real estate in 2011. Up or down? And, by how much?

   Here, I’ll start your answer for you;

   2011 RE = -X%

9. 

   Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:45 pm

   stable = ?

   Everyone from Yunnie on up has said we’d bounce along the bottom, but around NSDCC in January the stats are flat, with no bouncing.

   The reality is that there will be individual sales, like the Camphor short-sale (an obvious fraud) that’ll look like a steal, and other high-quality properties that ‘ll look like retail-plus.

10. 

    Jim the Realtor on February 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    Thanks Gene, I took it out. I’m not much of a 92069 guy.

11. 

    livinincali on February 3, 2011 at 3:01 pm

    Anything inside of +/- 5% is probably the consensus for home prices at this point and rarely do things hit the consensus. Looks like the long bond yields might be ready to break out to the upside which would force mortgage rates up and we now have a trend of declining median price/sqft for the past 6 months. I’m going to go with > 10% decline in SD county home prices for 2011.

12. 

    Chuck Ponzi on February 3, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    Mozart…

    You think it’ll be negative? That’s surprising. I thought you believed it was going to be positive every year?

    I’d say it’s going to be flat to slow appreciation. Maybe +1-5%. I think the years of down median prices is over. (though there’s risk to that, mostly around how banks manage inventory and foreclosures. There is simply not enough supply that can close

    Much of that will be a change in mix to higher priced homes, but good nonetheless. If SD is like OC (and I think it is very similar), there is quite a bit of strength in socal real estate, much more than I thought there was going to be.

    chuck

13. 

    Blurtman on February 6, 2011 at 1:17 pm

    $340/sq.ft. in Encinitas? It’ll be closer to $200 before all is said and done. Good luck catching these falling knives.