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The N.A.R. will be releasing the existing-home sales number tomorrow, and a rout is expected.

The consensus is that August sales improved over July’s number, but they think the year-over-year stats could plunge. The press will focus on any negativity, and call it catastrophic.

Lately there have been numerous reports that the shadow inventory is somewhere between 3 to 8 million homes, but after so many people say it, the impact has become muted. Can we sex those up a bit? 

I think soon (any day now) we are going to hear an eight-figure estimate from one of these so-called “experts’ – that the shadow inventory is OVER 10 MILLION HOMES!  Because there is no way of knowing the exact count, why not?

It’ll likely come from Rick at RealtyTrac, and it’ll be the new scare.

If the motivated sellers bite, and dump on price to salvage what they can before the headlines get any worse, it’ll be great for buyers.

Here are the SD County MLS sales numbers and percentage changes for August, all property types:

Month # of Sales $-per-sf DOM
Aug 2009
2,935
$229/sf
59
Jul 2010
2,787
$238/sf
67
Aug 2010
2,823
$235/sf
70

Sales: Month-over-Month = +1%, Year-over-Year = -4%
Pricing: Month-over-Month = -1%, Year-over-Year = +3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

North SD County Coastal (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Month # of Sales $-per-sf DOM
Aug 2009
353
$362/sf
77
Jul 2010
350
$346/sf
64
Aug 2010
336
$348/sf
66

Sales: Month-over-Month = -4%, Year-over-Year = -5%
Pricing: Month-over-Month = +1%, Year-over-Year = -4%

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that our percentage stats will be better than America’s.

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