We noted how people still say that the banks are sitting on loads of shadow inventory, when, from the street view, it appears that servicers are getting them to market as fast as they can process ’em.
Commentors pointed the shadow to those delinquent borrowers who haven’t been foreclosed yet.
How many borrowers are in default, and where?
There are 9,666 SFRs and 3,975 condos on the NOD and NOT lists, for a total of 13,641 homes that are actively in the foreclosure process in San Diego County. Here is a breakdown of the number of properties on the NOD and NOT lists, the number of homes with and without a mortgage (per city-data.com), and the percentage of defaults-per-mortgaged home in these areas:
| Town or Zip | # on f-list | WithMort/WO | % of homes with mortgage in default |
| Cardiff | 1,826/374 | 2.6% | |
| Carlsbad | 14,717/3,301 | 2.9% | |
| Del Mar | 3,256/730 | 1.4% | |
| Encinitas | 8,6781,744 | 1.4% | |
| La Jolla | 6,408/2,502 | 2.2% | |
| RSF | 1,713/851 | 1.6% | |
| Solana Bch | 1,964/752 | 2.6% | |
| 92127 | 3,423/262 | 5.9% | |
| 92129 | 9,233/459 | 2.3% | |
| 92130 CV | 6,617/518 | 2.2% | |
| 92131 SR | 7,808/509 | 1.7% |
According to the NY Fed, here are the 90-day mortgage delinquencies per county, as of 1Q10:
| County | % of 90-day Mortgage Delinquency | USA | 5.7% |
| Ventura | 7.4% |
| Orange | 7.6% |
| San Diego | 8.3% |
| Los Angeles | 10.0% |
| San Berdo | 14.8% |
| Imperial | 15.3% |
| Riverside | 15.9% |
There are 362,087 homes that have a mortgage in San Diego County (per city-data.com), so roughly 30,053 haven’t been making their payment for at least 90 days. If we subtract the 13,641 on the foreclosure lists, that makes 16,412 who are delinquent for 90 days or more, but not served yet.
Sounds about right.
If you multiplied the current number in default in your area by 2.2, you’d have the approximate count of those that are 90-day delinquent. Let’s mention that the servicers insist that borrowers be delinquent to be considered for a short sale or loan mod, so I’m not surprised at the numbers.
Jim,
So if I’m understanding this correctly, approximately 1 out of 20 people in San Diego County with a mortgage have not made a payment in more than 90 days, and haven’t received a NOD yet. Is that correct?
I am also not surprised by these numbers.
If the Fed is basing their 8.3% on those with mortgages, that’s about 1 out of 12 mortgagors on the free-rent program.
Now that is good, unbiased analysis…
Look at the new zip of 92127…wow.
Santaluz, Del Sur, 4S, etc…all new, and have stupid high HOA/MR fees and were way overpriced during the bubble.
Here’s an article that discusses how not only is there not a lot of shadow inventory, but how servicers may be engaging in illegal actions to foreclose when foreclosure isn’t appropriate, thus increasing the deliquent numbers over what they are.
http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/07/david-stern-djsp-foreclosure-fannie-freddie?page=1
I’m curious about those that were on the f-list, but somehow got cancelled… yet the NOT is still recorded and in force.
I know of one house in Carlsbad that fits this. 3 courthouse step dates postponed before it got cancelled. It’s “pending” on it’s short sale but has other liens (tax, judgements, etc) so the short sale will never go through… The recorders office still shows the NOT with no cancellation or recission.
IMO – this is a new form of “shadow inventory” – homes that are in inexplicable limbo – cancelled of the list, but probably still offering free rent to the “owner”.
grammatical goof – it should read “its short sale”
RB – i guess I missed the part of their defense that the homeowner had lived up to their obligation and actually paid their mortgage, produced their cancelled checks, but was being foreclosed on anyway…must have gotten lost in the mail…
ps: Howe was ‘foreclosure not appropriate’? Were they not ALREADY delinquent? How does this paperwork issue increase the delinquent numbers???
Another bailout on the way?
http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/
@clearfund, In some instances the person WAS current and had never been delinquent. You can argue that a person who is delinquent shouldn’t be given the opporutnity to cure, but you can’t deny that these people are entitled to a fair and even process (be it judicial or administrative) before the foreclosure is finalized.
RB, my observation is that the number of nonpaying borrowers who are gaming the system to delay foreclosure, live rent/mortgage free and try to rewrite the contract they entered into significantly exceeds the number of lenders seeking mistakenly to foreclose on current borrowers.
UCGal, the NTS does not have to be rescinded etc. If the shortsale ever goes through, there will just be the new deed recorded. If not, the lender will, later or sooner, eventually file a new NTS with a new sale date or will proceed with the trustee sale on one of the already “read” postponed dates.
Thanks for clarifying for me, Sean.