We noted how people still say that the banks are sitting on loads of shadow inventory, when, from the street view, it appears that servicers are getting them to market as fast as they can process ’em.

Commentors pointed the shadow to those delinquent borrowers who haven’t been foreclosed yet. 

How many borrowers are in default, and where?

There are 9,666 SFRs and 3,975 condos on the NOD and NOT lists, for a total of 13,641 homes that are actively in the foreclosure process in San Diego County.  Here is a breakdown of the number of properties on the NOD and NOT lists, the number of homes with and without a mortgage (per city-data.com), and the percentage of defaults-per-mortgaged home in these areas:

Town or Zip # on f-list WithMort/WO % of homes with mortgage in default
1,826/374 2.6%
14,717/3,301 2.9%
Del Mar
3,256/730 1.4%
8,6781,744 1.4%
La Jolla
6,408/2,502 2.2%
1,713/851 1.6%
Solana Bch
1,964/752 2.6%
3,423/262 5.9%
9,233/459 2.3%
92130 CV
6,617/518 2.2%
92131 SR
7,808/509 1.7%

According to the NY Fed, here are the 90-day mortgage delinquencies per county, as of 1Q10:

County % of 90-day Mortgage Delinquency
USA 5.7%
Ventura 7.4%
Orange 7.6%
San Diego 8.3%
Los Angeles 10.0%
San Berdo 14.8%
Imperial 15.3%
Riverside 15.9%

There are 362,087 homes that have a mortgage in San Diego County (per city-data.com), so roughly 30,053 haven’t been making their payment for at least 90 days.  If we subtract the 13,641 on the foreclosure lists, that makes 16,412 who are delinquent for 90 days or more, but not served yet. 

Sounds about right.

If you multiplied the current number in default in your area by 2.2, you’d have the approximate count of those that are 90-day delinquent. Let’s mention that the servicers insist that borrowers be delinquent to be considered for a short sale or loan mod, so I’m not surprised at the numbers.

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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