Are the choppy market conditions causing more sellers to give it a go?
Specifically, are new listings on the increase, flooding the market when older reluctant listings are stagnating? If so, it would sure give buyers another reason to pause. The new-listing count has been higher than last year, but still historically low – here are the San Diego detached numbers:
| New listings | Apr | May | June | July | Totals |
| 2008 | 3,984 | 3,766 | 3,686 | 3,721 | 15,157 |
| 2009 | 2,877 | 2,775 | 3,062 | 3,057 | 11,771 |
| 2010 | 3,572 | 3,244 | 3,460 | 2,788 | 13,068 |
No big flood to report, but the water has been rising due to inaccurate pricing. Not enough are selling, and a backlog is forming.
Today’s active inventory is 8,144 detached listings, and 3,908 attached listings, for a total of 12,052, which is 5% higher than it was four weeks ago.
July detached closings are probably going to be 20% to 30% lower than last month. There were 2,074 detached sales in June, and so far in July we’ve only had 1,238 actually close. So far there have been 1,656 detached listings get marked pending this month, so closings are going to be modest for the next few months, unless the short-sales can save the day. Of the 1,238 detached closings this month, 196 were marked as short sales, or 16%, and 226 as REOs, or 18%.
Year/Total Listings Apr-Jul/average cost psf of solds
2002/12,972/$237
2003/13,011/$274
2004/16,136/$366
2005/16,494/$371
2006/18,360/$362
2007/17,133/$342
2008/15,157/$254
2009/11,771/$239
2010/13,068/$257
Looks like we did bounce a bit there from the 2009 lows but the higher priced properties are still getting pounded.
A high-end REO just closed in south mission hills for 19% more than the 1998 sales price.
Rich Toscano’s latest charts of the Case-Shiller index, after it’s 13th consecutive increase:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/article_2bd3318a-9a97-11df-b500-001cc4c002e0.html