Inventory is rising, houses aren’t selling, yet list prices don’t seem like they are coming down much.

It sounds like the Big Standoff.

Let’s compare to this year to 2009, which had the hottest spring activity since 2005. 

Here are the early July detached-listing stats for the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region, compared to 2009:

July 1 to July 15 2009 2010
New Listings 249 263
New Pendings 100 89
Closings 84 84
Closings $$/sf $399/sf $390/sf

The 100 new pendings from last year have all closed, with 86 of this year’s 89 count still in escrow – but there are 141 marked contingent that will supplement the current pendings that fall out, and there will also be some late-reporters – let’s call it 89 for now? 

Up until the end of June the 2010 stats comapred very favorably to last year, but now conditions look a little jittery – there are a total of 1,652 active listings currently, and only 241 closed in the last 30 days (and 84 in the last 15 days). I think we’ll see more signs of a slowdown, at least until sellers start lowering their list prices.  Some aren’t far off, probably only 5% to 10%, but they’re getting stale quickly.  Others need a 10% to 20% reduction just to get in the game.

Could we run out of buyers?   Price will fix anything.

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