The NAR Pending Home Sales Index was released today.  They reported a 30% decline in May pendings (vs. April) and it didn’t even garner it’s own post at Calculated Risk, so either nobody cares about what’s coming out of NAR (most likely), or the drop was expected.

The index is a national reading, how are we doing in San Diego County? Here are the detached closed sales for SD County:

Month 2009 2010
April 1,997, $215/sf 1,865, $248/sf
May 1,992, $225/sf 2,150, $252/sf
June 1,949, $227/sf 1,789, $258/sf*
Totals 5,938 5,722

*June, 2010’s number of sales will probably increase 10% or so, due to late-reporters.

Compared to last year, the demand looks steady, even with average square-foot costs up about 10%. The tax credits probably helped, but now that they’re over, can we get a better feel for what’s coming?

Here’s a look at the current detached pendings.

Those from last year have closed, while about half of this year’s numbers are still pending, and subject to fallout (20% to 25%?).  But the 2,392 listings marked ‘contingent’ (short sales) are not included, and should pick up the difference, so I think we can make some decent comparisons. These are detached listings grouped by the month they were marked pending:

SD County Detached Pendings

Month 2009 2010 (# closed already)
April 2,123, $217/sf 2,334, $256/sf (2,019)
May 1,947, $237/sf 1,814, $262/sf (1,039)
June 1,931, $238/sf 1,998, $240/sf (214)
Totals 6,001 6,144

Only 315 of April’s remaining pendings are still eligble for the fed tax credit, and none of these will get state cheese. The local detached market has been resilient!

Once you add in the contingents, this summer’s closings are shaping up to be stronger than last year, without the tax credits, and in the face of unemployment, economy, etc.

The inventory is on the rise though, according to housingtracker.net, which is probably more due to so many over-priced turkeys (OPTs) not selling, than anything else.  Expect that to continue for a couple more weeks before we see the motivated sellers quicken their pace to the exits:

Week of SFH+Condo Inventory 25th %tile Median 75th %tile
2010-06-28 16,501 $249,000 $398,000 $689,900
2010-06-21 15,208 $249,900 $399,000 $699,000
2010-06-14 16,111 $249,000 $395,000 $680,000
2010-06-07 15,190 $248,000 $395,000 $695,000
2010-05-31 15,730 $248,000 $395,000 $690,000

The inventory rise/fall is measuring the list-price accuracy. There are plenty of buyers who would like to take advantage of the sub-5% mortgage rates, and if sellers can live with just a little less, we will have a very productive third quarter (might be a big ‘if’ though).

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