It was noted by Eric in the NCT that sales have been dropping for seven straight months, and clearfund suggested that we examine it further. Above we have the graph of the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of asking prices in San Diego County (from www.housingtracker.net), and the amount of inventory below:
We can see that last summer the inventory didn’t increase much, so instead asking prices shot up, at least in the upper price ranges. Remember last year how there were more sales in August/September than there were in May and June?
This year the inventory is already on the rise, diluting the chances further of sellers hitting the jackpot. Summer is likely to be another dud – at least until sellers start lowering their price.
North SD County Coastal has fared better on the number of sales. Those who follow statistics closely know that there are usually coincidences, but this is an all-timer – we had exactly 210 closings in four out of the last ten months (see red arrows below).
Plus we had an unusual occurance happen in the most recent January/February period in the NSDCC region. Sales around the holidays, which are normally tepid, instead plunged this year, and dragged down the average $$/sf too – see ovals below.
Was it because of the expiring tax credit, which was extended, giving buyers a breather? Or a sign of a real market dip, since obscured by the double cheeseburger and other can-kicking devices?
So far the May closings in NSDCC are totalling 183 – with the late-reporters we might hit the magical 210 again, but not much more. The state tax credit is about cooked, and with asking prices AND inventory rising, we’ll probably be in for a fairly quiet June. How soon will sellers re-adjust?