From Eric at the nctimes.com:
As the national housing market continued to languish, San Diego County values rose 10.8 percent in March compared with 12 months earlier, as a smaller number of buyers chased deals on the most expensive homes, according to the latest update of Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Since house prices bottomed out in March 2009, the county’s prices have taken a Super Ball-like rebound. Much of that bounce came from a frenzied market of investors and first-time homebuyers looking to buy the cheapest homes, while more expensive homes languished.
But the activity in March flipped that trend on its head: Homes priced under $311,200 fell 0.5 percent, the first monthly drop since May, though still up 11.3 percent since the previous March. Meanwhile, homes priced above $465,686 rose 2.9 percent in March from February, up 7.7 percent from the previous year.
The number of sales recorded in the index fell to 3,192, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, off a third since its last high, in August.
“I think buyers come into the market looking for a great deal, and realize that there are very few,” said Carlsbad real estate Jim Klinge in an e-mail. “The ‘steals’ tend to be extremely elusive due to multiple offers and agent shenanigans, and as a result, the buyers’ focus shifts to making a quality buy that fits most of their needs well.”
Jim – the trend of ‘off a third since…August’ is telling us something given it is a 7 month long trend…
Really no surprise that the market in the $500K range has been hot. With 10% down and low interest rates I’m guessing it’s very doable for a good % of the SD population. Even $600K, maybe a tad above, can be pulled off by many. So the cut-off at $465K includes these properties, which are getting bid up to a degree. No surprise, especially with weak inventory.
Going back to the earlier Case-Schiller thread were one poster was calling out permabears based upon the $465K+ market – gotta disagree with the argument. $465K is definitely nowhere near the “high-end” in SD. What the market is doing in the $400’s up to the $600’s and maybe even into the $700’s does not help me understand what is going on in the true high-end, which of course is higher in this region.
So what is happening in the $1 mil+ market in the better zips in SD? The only measure I can objectively look at is inventory and sales velocity. By this measure we still have a significant amount of high-end inventory in most zip codes. Del Mar – 17 months. Solana Beach – 13 months. Coronado – 21 months. Downtown – 17 months. Cardiff – 14 months. Encinitas – 25 months. CV – 8 months. RSF – 26 months. Mission Hills – 27 months. La Jolla – 9 months. PB – 23 months. Point Loma – 13 months.
Based upon these #’s I cannot see how the high end market will fare well in coming years. Is there some data out there that neutralizes the sheer volume of inventory data? Because I certainly cannot rely on data regarding sales in $465K range when evaluating higher-end properties in SD.
Yeah I agree, the only houses I was interested in were ones I caught day 1 on the market. There were always 3-5 offers along with mine on the second day. In the first case the bidding went over LP, in the latter it didn’t and I got it. This was about 100 homes and 3 years of looking later.
“I think buyers come into the market looking for a great deal, and realize that there are very few,” said Carlsbad real estate Jim Klinge in an e-mail. “The ’steals’ tend to be extremely elusive due to multiple offers and agent shenanigans, and as a result, the buyers’ focus shifts to making a quality buy that fits most of their needs well.”
Ding!
Boy does that describe me perfectly. My other thoughts include:
– I thought buying a house in this market would be challenging but fun. I’m not having any fun.
– On several different occasions we’ve discussed just continuing to rent. I having one of those moods now.
– Being super well qualified has gotten me exactly nothing (OK, lower loan rates).
– Learning the market and paying for information like Foreclosure Radar has gotten me about as much as being well qualified.
I need some Prosac.
W_t_f_t_m,
My wife read your comment #4 and said to me, “It’s as if you wrote that.” LOL! Amen on ForeclosureRadar.
I felt the same way before buying, it’s pretty much a given. Same thing looking for a job. Until you get your job, every other opening you don’t get weighs on you more than it should.