Our contest from November 16th just wrapped up. Here is a link to the original post:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/11/16/beach-cottage-contest/
At that time, all we knew was that the opening bid was $513,000. Bank of America went on to list it for $524,900 on behalf of the seller, and we had four offers right away. The highest offeree was a Vegas guy who owned not one, but two private planes, but he objected to the bank’s demand to waive his appraisal contingency. So we waved bye-bye to his $575,000 offer, and took buyer #2, a single guy who owns a number of properties (double-digit) who plans to live there for the time being.
Congratulations to pemeliza, with the closest guess of $550,000!
Honorable mention goes to Billy Atwater for guessing $552,500, and predicting that it’ll close in late spring! The list of guesses are posted in the comment section.
A pair of Padres tickets and a t-shirt for each of you!
$260,000 doug r
$450,000 CA renter and ocrenter
$470,000 bubblenerd
$481,194 Emma
$485,000 Francois Caron and Art Electric
$494,000 Paul
$495,000 Mike
$500,000 Vacation Rental Manager
$505,000 Genius
$513,000 aljanet
$521,250 Scooter
$525,000 LC Jim
$529,000 Happs
$531,000 culturaloddity
$535,000 Kingside
$539,000 Nathan
$543,000 chris g
$545,000 Anonymous
$550,000 pemeliza
$552,500 Billy Atwater
$564,900 ocsecondhouse
$570,000 bubblenerd (second guess)
$575,000 tj & the bear
$579,999 NateTG
$585,000 Dwip
$587,000 Former RB resident
$588,000 bobfather99
$590,000 KO
$595,000 calhousebear
$599,000 sosad
$605,900 Al in IC
$610,000 captcha
$613,000 Homer Simpson
$615,000 Blissful
$617,000 Freedom CM
$620,000 Chuck Ponzi
$623,000 DKO
$624,900 UCGal
$630,000 Erica
$637,900 Downturn
$640,000 Jason
$649,000 mtb
$652,000 Local Boy
$660,000 Jordan T
$666,666 Houses
$678,678 KBX
$680,000 Geotpf
$685,000 dafox and adam
$690,000 osidebuyer
$710,000 JAP
$729,000 doughboy
If they’re Padre-Dodger tickets, I make an excellent companion.
Congrats!
I was wondering why Jim was keeping the camera rolling for so long. 😉
Congrats to pemeliza and Billy!
That’s the closest I’ve come to winning one of these contests! Another year of watching Jim’s videos and that t-shirt is mine.
Wow I never win contests this is a nice surprise. I do have a brother in law that would love the tickets JTR, let me know if you can mail them. I am on the East Coast on business for a while.
Its interesting to see the winning guess was very close to the midpoint of all guesses made.
A few years back, this blog would skew so doomish that the actual price was at the very high end, or off the chart of all the guesses submitted.
So what happened? Did the doomers all leave, or did they adjust their expectations to reality?
Takua-Probably an example of “Condorcet Jury Theorem”.
http://www.lessig.org/blog/2005/07/are_crowds_wise.html
Basically, ask a bunch of people a question with a numeric answer (“How many jelly beans in this jar?” for instance), and frequently the average answer is really correct to the correct one.
If anything, looks like we guessed high on average. I sure did.
Errr…”really close to the correct one” is what I meant to say.
bubblnerd, you’re odds increased quite a lot when you bid twice, why not try 3 next time 🙂 (joking)
LOL, I said final answer in my second guess.