There have been 3,557 properties sell so far this year in our North SD County Coastal region. If the bulk of the 1,342 properties from Carlsbad to La Jolla that are currently on the NOD and NOT lists end up hitting the market next year, we’ll get to experience some true price discovery. If they somehow survive without selling, expect inventories to be thin, and buyers waiting somewhat impatiently.
Here’s an example via youtube:
Woohoo! Price discovery for everyone!
Finally some good news ;] Watching a $500k down payment evaporate must be awful. Ouch.
Trustee sales don’t count as comps, do they? How about short sales?
If a flipper can get 100-200k+ more than what they payed on the open market then you can pretty much assume that the price the flipper payed is not a “comp”. As far as short sales I think it depends on how legit the sale was. Many short sales are just out and out fraud.
A sale for cash only without the protection the escrow process has isn’t a true comp for houses bought with loans. Another big problem with short sales is that the offers could have been submitted months ago. I wouldn’t consider a sale from 7-8 months ago a comp, and some short sales are in effect a sale from 7-8 months ago. However, some short sales are comps since they were on the market recently and sold in a mostly normal process.
I consider REOs comps as well, but as with all houses sold you do have to consider the condition of the house. This doesn’t just apply to REOs, any house sold could have been in poor or superior condition.
Visited Central Coast of Ca. last week.
There is a 3 unit condo, built in 2007.
One block from the ocean, great ocean view,granite, wood floor, etc. One unit for sale-
Asking price in Jan. 2009,$1,300,000.
No takers.
Asking price in Dec. 2009 $ 798,000.
Still unsold.
2010 will be a rude awakening for the high end in Calif.
$1.2 – $1.4 million?
But that’s less than no-view condos across the street from a strip mall just a half mile away!
JTR – didn’t you just do a piece on how hot everything is?
Yes, market is still hot, just a lot smarter than it used to be. If this house hits the market at $1.5 or under, it’ll get snapped up.
The subsequent post talks about the house on Poco Lago – when we were first there I said that I thought it could slip under $2.0, and it closed for $2.3+ with a $1.3 down payment.
There are plenty of high-end buyers, and they are a patient bunch. We’ll see lots of examples here this year – stay tuned!
The other day someone asked me how many houses sold over $2.5 in 2009, and I guessed it was roughly a dozen a month. There were 168, paying an average of $905/sf.