Who cares where the market has been, where is it going??
How do you know if the market is going up or down? Better or Worse?
Monitor specific listings in your area. Rate each listing based on how well the list price reflects the value (and eventual SP).  Â
Does the list price incite urgency?Â
Did you grab for your checkbook?
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Early in my career I learned to use this sophisticated organizational system to assist with tracking – I put each listing in one of these three categories:
1. Hot Buy
2. Warmed-Over Turd
3. Dog, Barks at Traffic
Try this at home! You’ll see that using these categories will help!
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How fast they go pending can give you a clue about the sales price:
First 10 days = list price or higher
11-30 days = within 5% of list price
30+ days = at least 5% to 10% off list
We’ll follow a few listings to help gauge the market’s direction in the fourth quarter – here’s a youtube tour of the first set:
what’s that gate say? Dane Sex?
The guy’s name was Don but I’m still scratching my head on that one.
Jim, check your in box for this exact listing with pictures from Zillow and Cyberhomes.
I love your “Frenzy O Meter, JtR! I have a couple I’d like to get your opinion on, Jim. My tracking tool of choice is my Excel spreadsheet.
My first “Frenzy O Meter” nominee from the Central Coast is #83 on my RE spreadsheet. The present owners bought it new in August, 2003 for $464K. It is a 1,482 3/2 home on a 7,800+ lot. 2007 property taxes are listed on Zillow at $6,638.
But with the CA state meltdown–as CA property taxes skyrocket– they will certainly be higher as the new taxes are now pegged at 1.3% of the purchase price instead of the previous 1.1%. And I’ve heard here on bubbleinfo that a REO’s purchase price is not considered the basis.
8/2007: $699K (First List Price with Agent)
2/2008: $679K-$669K
8/2008: $629K-$599K
7/2008: Off Market
3/2009: $539K (FSBO)
(Rented for maybe 6 months)
6/2009: $559K (Empty & Back on MLS with Agent)
9/2009: $519K (Noted now as SS in List Details)
Is it any wonder that it’s now a SS? A neighbor mentioned the owners moved out-of-state for a job back in August, 2007 and bought a 3,500 sf home for $500K. So they must be enduring the agony of two mortgages!
Per my spreadsheet, a similar model (at the back of the subdivision) sold for $699K in 3/2007. That’s probably how the first agent came up with the original listing price.
Yep, Excel spreasheets for real estate tracking are a beautiful thing! The home backs a 2-lane “highway” of sorts, but the home does have beautiful mountain views from the backyard.
Another neighbor (renter) noted it’s mandatory that anyone buying this home be an early riser as the master bedroom is in the back closest to the highway. He said the overwhelming traffic noise is not for the faint-of-heart. It wakes him by 5 AM and that commute noise doesn’t decline until well after 9 AM.
If backing a highway isn’t negative enough, the home now sits empty and has no furniture in it. That makes it a tougher sell, right, Jim?
Per Zillow, it’s been listed for an astonishing 795 days. Doesn’t elicit much confidence now, does it? Also a beautiful 2,670 sf home (inner courtyard design)– three door down–just sold as a REO. It’s “pending price” is $599K. I don’t have its final selling price yet, but I noticed the new owners moved in last Monday.
The seller’s listing details (per Zillow) says:
“Great three bedroom two bath home on large lot. Open floor plan, close to schools, highway *** and markets with mountain and hill views. Located in quiet neighborhood in like new condition.”
I peg it at a #3 literally as (per your list: “Dog, barks at traffic”). But JtR, you ARE the professional with 25+ years experience, so *Chuckle* who am I to “try this at home”? And just to clarify, it’s certainly not one I’m interested in. It just popped in my head as a prime candidate for your awesome “Frenzy O Meter”.
Now I’m off to ponder as my spreadsheet shows me what prime candidate should be my #2 example.
Jim,
You went through that stop sign without stopping (@57 seconds in).
Buddy, we want you stick around. Stay safe.
Jim – What was the Santaluz house at $1m+ overpriced (they’re all over priced but that’s another blog….30+ custom/semi-c homes in the area between $1.9-$2.9mm in luz, crosby, fairbanks highlands….someone is going to break soon and down they tumble like Humpty Dumpty).
4 specs later in that marketplace we are lucky we cut our prices and sold our last one in fall 2006.
wheewwww…
You only have to make a complete stop, and there was a pause there. Hard to believe how many people comment on rolling stops….
No cop. No stop!
When I was growing up, that was referred to as a “California Stop”.
And, I didn’t grow up in Cali.
Chuck
Would love to see the Santaluz one!
Did you notice the 4-6 inch drop in the living room on the first Solana home. You better make sure your liability insurance is current.
There could be an injury showing the house.
Why would any reasonable person do that to a room??????What was the architect thinking???
Nobody knows which way the market is going. If they claim to they are guessing, wishing, and lying. I have a bucket of coins and about half of them are just as good as any guesser.
It’s better than the Jersey left. At a stop light, when it turns green, one and only one car is allowed to turn left before the oncoming traffic mows them down. Seriously, everyone expects you to take it.
Chuck, it’s a “California Roll”…
Jim, you stopped short of the new short listing on Crest Dr in 92024 – $450K, 1400 sqft, 2BA/3BR, 10K sqft lot.
Knife Catchers who purchased in 07 and 08 are just starting to bleed out. A little OT, but Rubio’s gets an $80M takeover bid from a construction company who is moving into the food business – sign of the times?
1. Hot Buy
2. Warmed-Over Turd
3. Dog, Barks at Traffic
I LOL’d. People are peering in my office, wondering what I’m doing. Please keep it grim, Jim.
Jim,
All of these are dogs (and I’m no permabear). Mango is like the Bermuda Triangle of Del Mar – so many listings, so many Home Depot remodels, so much turnover, so close to fwy.
Santa Luisa was owned by some sketchy lady who I heard was playing games with the bank, putting occasional renters in it and doing gosh-knows-what with the money. She keeps listing, pulling it off and relisting with new agents (who show up in fraternity tshirts, shorts, flip flops with dog and girlfriend in tow and say things like “You better make an offer today because she’s pulling it off the market tomorrow!” – that is no joke!). And the ‘sunroom’ is a stupid, likely leaky add-on (the entire layout is stupid, but that’s another issue).
I almost never disagree with you but I really don’t see these as being the bellwether for the state of the market, unless you are trying to illustrate that in this state, the market is overloaded with turds and dogs and the quality is being held back.
I still fail to see quality listings in DM, SB in the $1.0mm range – all the crap (I mean, turd) homes are on the MLS right now as far as I can tell.
I think we’re seeing it the same way – and if these turds sell, it’ll be evidence of continuous heat in the marketplace.
We know the hot-looking, well-priced ones will sell, it’s the outliers that help us see the real direction.
Aaaah, I get it. Checking to see if the dogs are actually turds and the turds are actually hot (but not hot turds).
(…and still my husband does not get my attraction to this site.)
Your finger is on the pulse, Jim. I couldn’t have picked anything turdier in the area!
3clicks, item #14 – Oh no, there goes my favorite fast food chain . . .
BAM, you know we’re in trouble when the turbs are being gobbled up. Yikes!
3 clicks, was 736 Crest in Encinitas (450k) ever active? Or did it come on as contingent? Looks like another inside job.
Thank you for doing another video on DM/SB. If they’d just leave the smokers alone, DM would be perfect. Maybe if they’d put some stairs down the cliffs to the ocean too; I’m always scared I’m going to ding my board.
I thought we’d see some more deals in Lomas Santa Fe by now. I expect we will soon.
If I could actually get the one off of Mango for $620k (did I hear that right? I can’t find it on Redfin) I would make an offer and hire some consultants to help finish it off. They aren’t making any more Torrey Pines High Schools you know. Mango is a really nice street IMO, even though I’d have to give up my *cough* partial *cough* ocean view. There is very little inventory in that neck of the woods (Del Mar Heights) under $1M, although I’ve seen some decent places in Solana Beach come and go for less. Still a bit surprised the monster for $1.7M is unsold. Other similarly priced houses should take note.
@Jinx,
Not sure about Crest, but I didn’t check either. Anyway, more properties to fall come winter. FYI, check Blossom Field, a true REO – looks like another subdivision in 92024 has a new comp but that house needs 100K in improvements to make whole. The sq ft is incorrect and is more like 1800 to 2K sq ft. Also, it looks like another Village Park property is already contingent or went contingent in less than a week. Can I ring the bell for a Fire Sale?
I second what Genius says about that area of Del Mar. When we moved to San Diego years ago, we spent a few years renting just a block from there. A great area and the commute has gotten better as they’ve improved the 805/5 interchange — it used to be much worse.
You can get a lot of freeway noise there though. Our bedroom faced the freeway, so I made a removable “plug” for our bedroom window out of layers of MDF and acoustic insulation. I’ve never slept as well anywhere else — it made the room incredibly dark and quiet.
Jim, I’ve been tracking 803 Ida for years. It’s not a new listing, they just took it off for a month to make it look new.
In September we celebrated their 2-year anniversary. And here’s the earlier price history.
If you don’t mind the freeway noise and the multiple houses on one lot, it’s a lot better at $799,000 than it was at $1.2 million.
Thanks W.C.!
It probably won’t surprise you to hear that I don’t normally track the Eden Gardens market. In fact, in my 25 years I’ve never had a buyer ask me, “Can you find me a really nice house in Eden Gardens?”
BAM,
hot turds
Is that like when your dog is sick? eeewwwwww….
There’s another Eden Gardens developer special on Vera that’s been on and off the market for years. Another one where they put 3 town houses on one lot and tried to get a million bucks a piece.
There is one nice property just down the street that might be worth your time, Jim. 900 Highland is an older house on a hill with great racetrack and rivermouth views. I wouldn’t consider it Eden Gardens as it’s separated by a big hill. More the feudal lord overlooking E.G.
P.S. 900 Highland is sheltered by a big hill from the freeway so I don’t think you’d have any freeway noise.
3 clicks, I’m waiting for something in north village park or south la costa (San Dieguito schools). I’m hoping the new REO/short sale comps drag it down some more. What’s the deal with Gardendale? That house has been on the market since Jan or Feb!
I went and looked at both the Gardendale one and the one that just went contingent on Countryhaven. Gardendale is a bit small I think and while the backyard was private I wasn’t a big fan of it. Countryhaven was certainly well priced, it was a nice house with a nice sunny yard. There were a lot of people viewing Countryhaven and at that price I’m not surprised at all. I have a feeling that it’s going to go for well over list, at least $460,000 but probably higher.
Google the Gardendale address and you will find out. Another blog site reports the owner had three other properties that were defaulted and posts the addresses (two big bombers at the Encinitas Ranch and a smaller property near or at CV). It looked like Gardendale was being rented all the while the house or houses were in pre foreclosure. The previous renter moved out before the trustee notice was taped to the door and shortly thereafter, someone moved in and it is currently occupied. For a while the for sale sign was partially hidden by the bushes out front. At over $400/sq ft SP does the bank even want to sell it? This just doesn’t pass the smell test.
@Jordan, my previous Realtard was pressuring me to bid $650K for that house back in in VP in ’06.
I spoke with the agent for Gardendale back in the spring, thinking maybe I’d offer 400k. The agent said he already had offers for up to 480k. And its still there. Interesting….
Realtard. Good laugh.
Or, in the interest of Jim’s classifying system, is it
Realturd?
@Jinx, check out the cul-de-sac on Hill Top Ln. three blocks up from the Blossom Field REO that just closed. I just noticed the owners are in pre-foreclosure ($9,312 default). If low end/entry level Seagate Village is taking hits now, VP will bear the brunt.
I DONT’T understand how an assessment came in at $650,760 on 2008. Can anyone explain?
SFR, 3/2, 1,511 Sq Ft
Previous sales
$465,000 on 4/4/2003
$638,000 on 4/19/2007
Previous assessments
$650,760 on 2008
$502,671 on 2007
$492,816 on 2006
Last assessed at $650,760 on 2008
3 clicks, that just doesn’t make sense. 650K? Earlier this year a neighbor sold for just 486k (4/17/09 1760 Hill Top 2/2 1,368 sqft). But nothing seems to make sense these days 🙂
Jinx, 486K was an REO that took a long time to foreclose and finally get back into the market (GOOD). Gotta love the slow play by the banks. The listing agent on Blossom Field also listed 1760 Hill Top. Anyway, looks like the appraiser were following the real estate never goes down theory.