Carlsbad Renter was the one who said this blog was turning into an informercial, and expanded on that thought earlier today (under ‘Hot All Over’):
Please don’t take my post above (or this one) personally, like I said I am not the most eloquent blog poster. I’m just trying to tell you what I see, and how that conflicts with what once attracted me to your site.
To me, your early description in the next days video are a perfect example of how the focus around here has shifted from home buying to short term finance finance. What you described is the very essence of a bubble. No rationale for pricing, buyer frenzy, and the unspoken urgency for people to get in now. I’m sure at one point the tulip brokers were having a hard time finding merchandise for their buyers, too.
In my opinion, in the past you offered more commentary on the intangibles, on neighborhoods, peculiarities of a particular house, and longer time horizon factors that as a newcomer to SD, I found refreshing and useful. The Oceanside condo auction/head shop tour is a perfect example.
What seemed to me to distinguish you from other realtors was that you kept the excitatory rhetoric relatively low, you didn’t openly fan the flames and play on emotions like the realtors who took me around NoCo in late 2007. They were crassly after a commission, and didn’t seem to care a whit how that affected my family or future prospects. [You may be too, but at least you try to hide it :-)]
How about some information for “the rest of us,” the ones who still don’t have 20% down and are unwilling to rush into this crazy market? What SHOULD we be looking for? I’m not talking about buying price alone, but also the more intangible and durable components of home buying. Neighborhood, noise, future development, commute times, boring details like that that make a place a dream or a nightmare.
You’ve been through a SD RE bubble before. Where did people get burned, what mistakes were made, what things have proven over time to have been good moves?
Thanks.
Happy to oblige. I’d like it to be said that you could learn a little something here about buying and selling real estate. Let’s start at the beginning. When I first became a realtor in 1984, I learned two things in my first month in the business:
1. Risk and Reward ride the same elevator, and
2. There’s Nothing Price Won’t Fix
Here’s an example of #2:
would the proximity to all that foliage make getting the place insured a problem? I’m wondering about where it is wrt the firestorm of a couple of years ago.
It seems a nice place to set up a business – bit big to be just a home.
Nice house.
Let’s see, 20% of $3 million dollars is?…
Just how many car garage is that?? looks almost like 5. Nice house though, a bigger usable back yard would be nice (tennis court?). The back might be too steep for a retaining wall to allow putting the tennis court below.
Listening to the rabble diminishes your value. Jim, please keep calling it like you see it.
That said, I miss some of the early snark even though I understand why it needs to be toned down.
I never get tired of people telling the truth and reporting from the ground.
We’ve disagreed. I saw the cliff dive in prices first and more. Jim saw the this bounce. Now we disagree again.I see another cliff dive from here. Jim., if I understand it, sees a rocky bottom and modest uptrend.
3 plus years ago there was this wacky theory about slinkies. How’s that working out?
On topic. That house is a poster child for te greatest waste of space in SoCal.
Oh yeah it’s way too big, but it’s definitely liveable. 😉
Jim,
Just because it’s listed for $2.44M doesn’t stop anyone from offering $1.9M, so why no offers? Could it be that the market for such homes is so thin that nothing but an absolutely & outrageously low price would garner true interest?
Back in the mid 90’s my wife & I toured dozens of *nicer* homes in the best areas along the Ventura County / LA County border (e.g., Hidden Hills, Calabasas, North Ranch, Lake Sherwood, etc.) that were just sitting for years — no interest, no offers, nothing — despite prices under $200/sf and huge lots.
That is a great house! But, OMG, 20 days on the market and no offers??? Thanks for making the day right for Carlsbad Renter (aka “whiney”, “boo hoo”, “the whole world is mean to me because I can’t buy a 2M house for $159,500”). I was getting depressed hearing positive, objective news about the real world of real estate.
I’d definitely change the carpets. They look a bit worn out and dirty. And also a paint job wherever paint SHOULD go. No painting the woodwork or you’re DAID!
T, when you said “set up a business,” exactly what kind of business did you have in mind? 😉
Does every high-end house in SD county come with a fire funneling canyon? Not worth $3 million, but I think you’d get a few bites at $1.9mil. With all those baths, you’d think someone would figure out how to subdivide these places.
tj,
Part of the maturity of the marketplace is that after a few years of this, we all know that banks aren’t coming off their price much early in the listing.
Pick on the REOs on the market 100+ days and call your shot.
Jim, I think you’re right that at $1.9M that would go right off the market. Poor, poor agent…can’t even afford a couple bucks for 9V batteries to stop the “REO beep.” 😉
-Erica
8: nothing agricultural
Jim,
Great walk through. Everything you said was spot on. And I agree with you that is a really nice house.
It just goes to show you – I think that’s a horrible house – even at 900k. It’s ugly and not layed out well.
Doug R – right on. I thought about filling it with 10 families and their kids.
rob, that slinky thing has worked out very well in real life, thank you very much.
$3 million x .65 = $1.9 million, that’s about right.
I’ve seen quite a bit of the following, $1 million spread at peak is now mostly less than $600k spread:
$1.9 million x .65 = $1.2 million
$1.5 million x .65 = $975,000
$900,000 x .70 = $630,000
Law of Slinky in Full Effect
I actually like that house. Agree that it needs a better backyard, but it’s got a majestic look to it. That sauna is a nice touch too.
Killer house. Place it in Vista and you can buy it for 1.3M. If anyone wants to live like that at 1/2 price Jim could show you many homes like that with equal privacy, quality construction and space. Here are 3 to look at if you want to live like a king and have the best Mexican roadside food in SO CA around every corner!!!
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090028260-1760_Warmlands_Vista_CA_92084
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090034210-2010_Buena_Village_Vista_CA_92084
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090044614-2196_Allesandro_Trl_Vista_CA_92084
Jim, When it gets under 1.8, give me a call. Of course, I’ll have to get a new job and convince my wife to move there, but hey, its got a lot of nice features.
The yard in back is a bit weak. Maybe the gated front area provides some play area for kids, etc., but typical so-cal: Lots o’house, not much grass.
Why the heck wouldn’t they spend a grand to clean up that pool? Then they could price this place like it wasn’t an REO, I suppose.
I dunno; there are bits of the place I rather like. I might have traded off space in the Great Room (which ain’t that great) for space in the main hall so that it could actually handle ballroom dances. And I’d probably spend most of my time in the paneled den — lovely little room.
I also rather like the “minimalist” back yard — I’d prefer not to have enormous amounts of yard space requiring constant maintenance and (scarce) water.
And until the pool gets cleaned up, call it a koi pond :-).
…But not worth $2.44E+06, though. No way. Even $1.9E+06 is stretching credulity.
Okay, I take back the snark about the Great Room — the ceiling saves it. But the “media nook” would have to be redone. From the video, it looks too small to handle modern hi-def displays.
Was that carpeting on the floor in the upstairs bathrooms right up to the toilets? That rarely ends well…