by Jim the Realtor | Oct 2, 2008 | Coffee Bet |
The other two neighborhoods I mentioned as “superior homes” to watch were Davidson’s Starboard tract in La Costa Oaks, and the old beach community, Terramar. How are they doing?
The number of sales have been low, and data scattered in both areas.
Here are the same-house sales in Starboard, listed in chronological order of their resale date, with the only three 2008 sales in bold:
| Floor Plan |
Sales Price, New |
Resale Price, Date |
% Diff |
| Plan One |
|
|
|
| 3,743sf |
$1.123, 2/05 |
$1.200, 5/06 |
+7% |
| 3,743sf |
$913K, 3/05 |
$1.130, 7/07 |
+24% |
| 3,743sf |
$992K, 4/05 |
$1.175, 7/07 |
+18% |
| 3,743sf |
$997K, 11/05 |
$1.070, 9/07 |
+7% |
| 3,743sf |
$1.008, 4/05 |
$1.007, 11/07 REO |
-0- |
| 3,743sf |
$999K, 12/05 |
$900K, 6/08 REO |
-10% |
| Plan Two |
|
|
|
| 4,000sf |
$1.025, 12/06 |
$1.150, 5/07 |
+12% |
| 4,000sf |
$983K, 6/05 |
$1.167, 6/07 |
+19% |
| 4,000sf |
$956K, 3/05 |
$1.200, 7/07 |
+26% |
| 4,000sf |
$1.156, 12/05 |
$1.150, 4/08 |
-1% |
| 4,216sf |
$1.065, 9/05 |
$1.095, 6/08 |
+3% |
| Plan Three |
|
|
|
| 4,398sf |
$1.009, 3/05 |
$1.165, 10/06 |
+15% |
| 4,398sf |
$975K, 4/05 |
$1.024, 4/07 |
+5% |
The second REO sale had listed for $849,000, and the agent already had the buyer standing by at $900,000 – it went pending the first day, and could have sold for more.
There is an active short-sale listing of a 3,743sf plan, listed on the range $949,000 to $1,049,000, and a PENDING 4,398sf plan, listed for $1,549,000 to $1,649,000.
I think this is going to be typical in the prime areas from now on – lower short-sale or REO listings closing under the trend, interspersed with primo listings going for top dollar. The future sales depend on how many homeowners can’t hang on – about half of them had equity in the 0-20% range.
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Terramar has been beating the odds.
In May of this year, there were three different 1,500sf houses sell in the $800,000s on El Arbol and Los Robles, similar to sales in 2005.
There have been two shockers lately too.
The nutty 1,399sf house with a studio over the garage on the non-oceanfront side of Shore Drive closed for $1,600,000 cash to an Arizona buyer. It had sold in 2002 for $750,000.
And the 2,760sf house at 5390 Los Robles closed at $1,225,000 to a buyer from Simi Valley on 9/4/08. I had it listed for $349,000 in 1995 and couldn’t sell it – everyone thought I was crazy. The owner finally did get lucky and sold it for $762,500 in August, 2003.
**************************************
The fewer sales in both areas help illustrate the difficulty for buyers looking for prime properties – do you keep waiting for lower prices, or take your shot when you have it, because of the few choices available?
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 25, 2008 | Coffee Bet |
It was September, 2006 that the famous coffee bet took place. 
I had put forth my hypothesis on how the downturn would end up, adding that with my prediction and about $4 you could get a cup of coffee.
Here’s a link for those who’d like to review the hypothesis:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2006/09/grand-poobah-of-predictions/
I said that ‘superior homes’ might only lose 5-10% of their value, but inferior homes were likely to get clobbered, losing 40% to 50%, resulting in a combined blended loss of 33% in median home price.
Here was the justification:
Three general reasons the high-quality properties will do better:
1. They’re older houses, owned by older people, with less debt.
2. They have it so good, there’s no better place to go.
3. Buyers are holding out for the good stuff.
Because of these three reasons, the supply-and-demand curve is much more healthy in the high-quality-home market.
I was vilified by most of the commenters, one in particular, the infamous powayseller. It might have been the impetus for her to finally start her own blog?
Rob Dawg calmly offered, “I’ll buy you that $4 cup of coffee if you can find anything that isn’t off at least 10% from the peak this time next year.”
So I took the challenge, and mentioned three neighborhoods (Terramar, Olde Carlsbad, and La Costa Oaks – Davidson tract) that I thought could beat the odds. When we reviewed them a year later and put it to a vote, I came out slightly ahead.
Where do we stand now?
Let’s start in Olde Carlsbad – 92008
For those who know Olde Carlsbad, I think you’ll agree that it’s a mixed bag – many older, smaller SFRs interspersed with new or remodeled houses and estates, many with ocean views. Determining values is always a challenge around 92008, but you decide.
Here are the same-house sales that have closed in 92008 since June, 2008:
1295 Cynthia 3 br/2 ba, 1,400sf YB:1960 short sale
$615,000 10/05 $411,000 9/08 Difference = -33%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2728 Forest Park 4 br/3 ba, 2,248sf YB:1985 REO
$647,000 6/04 $435,000 8/08 Difference = -33%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1726 Forest Ave 3 br/2 ba, 1,900sf YB:1962 REO
$545,000 8/04 $535,000 7/08 Difference = -2%
(former owner pulled a $720K loan and did full remodel, then had medical prob)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3255 Monroe 4 br/2 ba, 2,124sf YB:1964 REO
$700,000 7/05 $575,000 6/08 Difference = -18%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2051 Laurie 4 br/2 ba 1,937sf YB:1960 flipper
$460,000 2/08 $616,500 7/08 Difference = +34%
(seller/agent did full remodel, probably made $20-40K after costs)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
450 Anchor 3 br/2 ba 1,877sf YB:1982
$655,000 7/06 $650,000 6/08 Difference = -1%
(buyer exchanged into this year’s purchase, paid all-cash)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5111 Delaney 4 br/3 ba, 2,856sf YB: 2004
$885,000 8/06 $875,000 6/08 Difference = –1%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3912 Garfield 2 br/1 ba, 832sf YB:1940
$850,000 8/05 $853,000 6/08 Difference = 0
(remodeled)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2168 Dickinson 5 br/4.5 ba, 3,043sf YB:2004
$758,000 5/04 $915,000 9/08 Difference = +21%
(new in 2004)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2178 Twain 5 br/4.5 ba 3,737sf YB:2004
$727,000 1/04 $1,030,000 6/08 Difference = +42%
(new in 2004)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
155 Chinquapin 4 br/4 ba, 2,292 sf YB:1990
$1,200,000 2/04 $1,225,000 9/08 Difference = +2%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There were 79 sales closed since June 1st, and these eleven purchased since 2004. The remaining 68 who purchased in 2003 or earlier all sold for more than they paid.
Can I call the results a mixed bag too?
More later on the other two areas in question!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 18, 2008 | Scams, Short Sales |
What happens to those on the edge of foreclosure?
If you are Jan Terry, owner of this house at 2872 Vista Acedera in La Costa Valley and Jenae’s co-conspirator, you pull out all the stops.
First it was to try their lease-option program, hoping to find a renter willing to cover her roughly $9,000/month obligation. But no takers.
Then she tried the typical short sale strategy, starting with a list price of $1,100,000, which was slightly under her purchase price of $1.25 million, which she financed 100% in April, 2007. She eventually lowered it down to $890,000, but then cancelled the listing.
Now she has reverted to the last resort. We think she must have sent in a short-sale offer to the bank to postpone the trustee sale, which was scheduled for July 17th.
In the meantime, she has rented the house to 14 surly individuals who come and go at all hours, night and day!
The HOA says they can’t do anything. Carlsbad P.D. says they might tow this car that they park around the corner, but that’s about all they can do.
The neighborhood has already suffered from this inflated sale, which contributed to others paying too much – now the impending foreclosure of a house that is surely in disrepair will help tank values further. Thanks Jenae!!!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 28, 2008 | Foreclosures/REOs, Fraud |
We have discussed the suspiciously high sales in Bressi Ranch last year, and the alleged inflating of prices/kickbacks for property management that ensued.
We know what happened then – what is the lasting impact?
Here is a summary of the Bressi Ranch high-end sales history:
2566 Discovery, Carlsbad
4 br/3.5 ba 3,480 sf
SP = $944,000 6/05
SP = $1,350,000 3/07
DOM = 0
100% fin.
First strike – This was her first in Bressi Ranch, one that, according to how she put it in the system, she represented both buyer and seller, and “sold prior to MLS input”. There had been a couple of sales in 2005 & 2006 of former model homes in the $1.2 to $1.35 range, but the market had began its decent by March 2007. This sale was a 43% increase in sales price between 2005 and 2007, and started the string of sales that fed on one another. You can see on the sign that she tried to arrange for a lease-option, which was the basis for the program. The idea was to find new buyers to lease option, in this case for $11,000 per month.
YB: 2005, HOA = $205, MR = $219
2023 update: After selling for $1,350,000 (financed 100%), it sold for $800,000 at the end of 2008. It has since sold for $1,245,000 in 2017.
**********************************************************
6239 Lismore
4 br/3.5 ba 3,480 sf
SP = $1,159,000 2/05
SP = $1,350,000 5/07
DOM – 201 days
96% fin.
Second strike – The seller/agent of this house had been trying to get $1,199,000 to $1,229,000 between 9/06 and 2/07. He cancelled the listing and put it back on March 1, 2007 at $1,225,000, and stated in the remarks, “no offers below $1,200,000”. A couple of weeks later he RAISES the price to the range $1.25 to $1.35 million, and marks it pending. Later he let it expire, but tax rolls show it closed for $1,350,000, with $1.3 million in financing. Jenae’s company is now the listing broker, and she told me that she sold it, though it isn’t marked in the MLS.
YB: 2005 HOA = $205, MR = $219
2023 update: Jenae’s brokerage sold this house as a short-sale for $875,000 a year after selling it to their buyers for $1,350,000 who financed $1,300,000. The $875,000 buyers still own it in 2023.
****************************************************************
These two sales perpetuate the illusion that homes in Bressi Ranch are worth more than $1.3 million, at least for the ensuing few months. What happened afterwards?
6253 Alverton sells for $1,210,000 for 4,608 sf – looks like a legit sale but seller/agent had struggled, the DOM was 245 days and he was trying to rent it too. Buyers and their newer agent probably relied on the two sales above for comfort.
************************************************************
6344 Huntington, Carlsbad
4 br/4.5 ba 3,815 sf
SP = $958,500 5/05
SP = $1,300,000 9/07
DOM – 58 days
100% fin.
Third strike – The same newer agent (not associated with Jenae) listed this house for $1,199,000, and it closes for $101,000 higher. The out-of-town buyer/agent, and unfortunately a victim of the scheme, buys it thinking that the rents will cover the $10,000 per month payment, including taxes. He has since dis-associated himself from the agency who got him into this mess, and is trying to rent it now for $4,500 per month, hoping to hold on for a couple more years.
YB: 2005 HOA = $193, MR = $203
2023 update. The 100%-financed buyer who paid $1,300,000 was foreclosed in 2009. The house was sold two months later for $776,000. It then sold for $2,700,000 cash a year ago!
*********************************************************
Alverton could have started the natural decent again, but Huntington propped up the market for one more sale:
This is the collateral damage – innocent people come along and think these three strikes are legitimate values – but they aren’t. Not only that, many others have probably refinanced, using appraisals based on the three strikes.
The highest sale since is $825,000 for 3,092 sf, on 9/20/07.
Worse yet, now other sellers are trying to get out, based on the illusion of values being in the $1.2 to $1.3 range. Along comes Jenae to rescue one of her victims – she has listed Lismore (the second strike) for sale, trying to get her client some relief through a short sale – in the remarks it says ‘submit all offers’. It’s the first burnt-red circle below, plus the foreclosure listed two days ago (second circle) squishes down the chances of anyone getting $1.3 million anytime soon.
These are the active high-end listings in Bressi Ranch:
No charges have been filed against any of the perpetrators, though I have had more than one conversation with the FBI.
Consider the trail of destruction left behind – it’s not just the banks of the three strikes that are going to take the hit. These sellers are going to be sorely disappointed once they realize what happened.
