The other two neighborhoods I mentioned as “superior homes” to watch were Davidson’s Starboard tract in La Costa Oaks, and the old beach community, Terramar. How are they doing?

The number of sales have been low, and data scattered in both areas.

Here are the same-house sales in Starboard, listed in chronological order of their resale date, with the only three 2008 sales in bold:

Floor Plan Sales Price, New Resale Price, Date % Diff
Plan One
3,743sf $1.123, 2/05 $1.200, 5/06 +7%
3,743sf $913K, 3/05 $1.130, 7/07 +24%
3,743sf $992K, 4/05 $1.175, 7/07 +18%
3,743sf $997K, 11/05 $1.070, 9/07 +7%
3,743sf $1.008, 4/05 $1.007, 11/07 REO -0-
3,743sf $999K, 12/05 $900K, 6/08 REO -10%
Plan Two
4,000sf $1.025, 12/06 $1.150, 5/07 +12%
4,000sf $983K, 6/05 $1.167, 6/07 +19%
4,000sf $956K, 3/05 $1.200, 7/07 +26%
4,000sf $1.156, 12/05 $1.150, 4/08 -1%
4,216sf $1.065, 9/05 $1.095, 6/08 +3%
Plan Three
4,398sf $1.009, 3/05 $1.165, 10/06 +15%
4,398sf $975K, 4/05 $1.024, 4/07 +5%

The second REO sale had listed for $849,000, and the agent already had the buyer standing by at $900,000 – it went pending the first day, and could have sold for more.

There is an active short-sale listing of a 3,743sf plan, listed on the range $949,000 to $1,049,000, and a PENDING 4,398sf plan, listed for $1,549,000 to $1,649,000.

I think this is going to be typical in the prime areas from now on – lower short-sale or REO listings closing under the trend, interspersed with primo listings going for top dollar. The future sales depend on how many homeowners can’t hang on – about half of them had equity in the 0-20% range.

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Terramar has been beating the odds.

In May of this year, there were three different 1,500sf houses sell in the $800,000s on El Arbol and Los Robles, similar to sales in 2005.

There have been two shockers lately too.

The nutty 1,399sf house with a studio over the garage on the non-oceanfront side of Shore Drive closed for $1,600,000 cash to an Arizona buyer. It had sold in 2002 for $750,000.

And the 2,760sf house at 5390 Los Robles closed at $1,225,000 to a buyer from Simi Valley on 9/4/08. I had it listed for $349,000 in 1995 and couldn’t sell it – everyone thought I was crazy. The owner finally did get lucky and sold it for $762,500 in August, 2003.

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The fewer sales in both areas help illustrate the difficulty for buyers looking for prime properties – do you keep waiting for lower prices, or take your shot when you have it, because of the few choices available?

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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