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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

A few general observations as the 2019 market continues to liftoff.

  1. At the Inventory Watch, we are measuring the active listings, which are the unsold listings – so we are measuring what isn’t working, at least not yet.  In the past, it was just a matter of time before the rising market came up enough to meet every seller and their price, but now we’re not as confident about when that might happen. It may take a lot longer before pricing rises substantially, and we could plateau for years to come.
  2. Rising inventory gives buyers more confidence that waiting longer will produce better results.  It used to happen like that when banks were selling REOs for whatever the market would bear, but now that those days are over.  Will there be sellers who want/need to sell for whatever the market will bear, or will they wait? (which would create a glut of unsold listings)
  3. Markets will vary. You can see in Bill’s graph above that inventory behaves differently, and it’s really an indicator of how much sellers and listing agents are holding out on price.  Our current inventory is +24% year-over-year, which is mellow given our higher price point compared to those in the graph.

Are you coming off vacation and getting back in the swing? Click here to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

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Posted by on Jan 14, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.

But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.

If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

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Posted by on Jan 7, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Padres Contest

Big Papi’s last game in SD

Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?

Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!

If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early.  If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.

If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.

Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:

NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb

Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35

The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!

Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.

The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.

Larry Baer, CEO of the SF Giants

Posted by on Jan 2, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 29 comments

Inventory Watch

Did you feel that mini-surge we had this week?  It wasn’t much, but a handful of older, higher-priced listings went pending just a few days before Christmas.  There is going to be activity!

Another quirky event happened this week.

The MLS doesn’t allow the CMA-Summary calculations once the number of listings get into the mid-400s (though it could just be me). We have 443 NSDCC houses listed over $2,000,000 today, which is low enough that we got our first look since March at the asking-price-per-sf.

The list prices of homes listed over $2,000,000 are averaging $1,038/sf, which is the highest of the year – and the other three categories are all around their highs for the year too!

Like Mark Wahlberg said in Mile 22, “Your ego is not your amigo”.

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Posted by on Dec 24, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch


We have about the same number of NSDCC houses for sale as usual this time of year, and the list-pricing appears to have plateaued too:

NSDCC Active Listings, 3rd Reading in December

Year
# of Active Listings
4Q Median List Price
2014
878
$1,199,000
2015
821
$1,348,500
2016
798
$1,377,500
2017
641
$1,549,900
2018
818
$1,550,000

The Fed meeting will be the biggest news of the week – if mortgage rates would improve between now and mid-January, we could see an active start of the year.  If not, then the wait-and-see mode will be irresistible for buyers.

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Posted by on Dec 17, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The slowdown started during the summer, so there was some evidence of it by the beginning of August – and it has been in the news non-stop ever since.

Are sellers getting the message?

Maybe, but they must think it applies to someone else:

NSDCC Average List-Price-Per-SF:

Week
Under-$1M
$1.0M to $1.5M
$1.5M to $2.0M
Aug 1
$434/sf
$493/sf
$590/sf
$434/sf
$496/sf
$596/sf
$426/sf
$494/sf
$608/sf
$430/sf
$493/sf
$622/sf
Sep 3
$427/sf
$486/sf
$611/sf
$436/sf
$489/sf
$603/sf
$439/sf
$483/sf
$613/sf
$440/sf
$476/sf
$618/sf
Oct 1
$441/sf
$476/sf
$624/sf
$441/sf
$481/sf
$612/sf
$434/sf
$487/sf
$612/sf
$426/sf
$492/sf
$602/sf
$422/sf
$495/sf
$601/sf
Nov 5
$418/sf
$490/sf
$601/sf
$449/sf
$498/sf
$605/sf
$449/sf
$498/sf
$624/sf
$450/sf
$492/sf
$620/sf
Dec 3
$454/sf
$478/sf
$611/sf
$455/sf
$487/sf
$619/sf

Lower their price? They’d rather not sell – and this is December, when you’d think the sellers who are on the open market must be motivated.

Don’t get your hopes up about seeing a big dump on price in Spring, 2019. If it were to happen, it will happen quietly, and you’ll only see it after the fact in late summer, once sellers have exhausted their optimism.

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Posted by on Dec 10, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Slowdown | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The more I study our local statistics, the less worried I get about 2019 – at least as far as how we compare today to previous years.

If the current active inventory was a bloated number that far exceeded previous years, there would be more concern, but we’re right in there – and last year was an anomaly.

The avg. number of NSDCC active listings for the first week of December is 859:

NSDCC Stats, First Week of December

Year
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Active Inventory of Detached-Homes
2013
25
34
870
2014
47
37
923
2015
57
42
865
2016
86
47
903
2017
45
39
700
2018
67
45
893

Obviously, the high-end is where concern should be, but here’s an example of how unpredictable the market is.

Rancho Pacifica is the high-end gated community between Carmel Valley and Fairbanks Ranch full of custom homes built mostly in the 200-2007 era.  If you like Tuscan, you will love RP!

There have only been two sales this year over $4,000,000 in RP, yet look what happened last month.  Three listings in the high-$5,000,000s went pending in November – two of them last week (click to enlarge):

Next year we should have more selection, and less predictability than ever!

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Posted by on Dec 3, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch started during the last week of November in 2013, as we were coming off a blistering frenzy.  Here are the number of active listings logged for the last reading in November:

Year
Total Number of Active Listings, End of November
2013
907
2014
960
2015
896
2016
888
2017
739
2018
930

The 2017 market will go down as one of the best years ever!  Like we saw towards the end of 2014, the previous frenzy conditions created overly-optimistic sellers, which is reflected in the higher amount of unsold listings.

The NSDCC median sales price for November, 2013 was $1,030,000, and the average mortgage rate was 3.99%.

This month, the median sales price is $1,310,000 (which is +27% from 2013), and today’s mortgage rate is 4.94%!

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Posted by on Nov 26, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The new listings dropped 28% from the previous week, and we probably won’t have many this week either as we head into Thanksgiving. The overall 2018 inventory has been in line with previous years, and that’s probably including at least 5% to 10% more refreshed listings than ever before:

Year
Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 – Nov 15
2014
4,430
2015
4,736
2016
4,843
2017
4,400
2018
4,539

We’ll get through the rest of the year, and then see what 2019 has in store – will there be a seller panic that will cause a flood of inventory?  P.S. Of today’s 928 NSDCC houses for sale, 500 of them, or 54%, are priced over $2,000,000!

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Posted by on Nov 19, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments