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Posted by on Nov 20, 2012 in Carmel Valley, Forecasts, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 8 comments | Print Print

Carmel Valley Test Case

There are probably those who are formulating their predictions about the 2013 market, and now that the comments are on, are getting ready to share with us what they see coming down the road.

Lately the media has been unabashed in their fondness for the apparent recovery underway, and even I have been unusually optimistic about the near-future.

Carmel Valley has been our litmus test, with its rows of newer tract homes, outstanding schools, and central location.  What can the CV tell us today?

It appears that CV buyers are starting to resist the seller exuberance.

Could the spring selling season turn into a dud because of greed?

Here is the all-San Diego graph, which masks the detail of the more-localized graph above:


  1. Hi! nice to see comments.

    I’ve been the bearish of bears on the RE mkt for 5 years now, but I’m now convinced that the Gov. will continue to be all in the market, whatever that may mean in the future remains to be seen. I doubt rates will rise much any time soon, and what red-blooded American can resist a home in Phoenix with a pool, and big lot and cheap square feet.

    A family member of mine, a Realtor in SE Florida is having the best year of her career, we’re talking a real good year. I think the NE has some pain to come, who knows how long that may take. Folks from Atlanta say the funds are picking up low ends left and right at ever increasing prices. Texas seems stable or better, bidding wars in S Cal low end. What’s not to love?
    People seem content making home purchase decision based on low monthly payments, like Apple pie.

    I can’t be a bear anymore, not to say we are out of the woods, we’ve at least turned a corner. My 2 cents–been wrong before.

    Jim thx for giving a mortgage geek a place to ramble….


  2. I think we’re going to have a false start, especially when the fiscal cliff happens on January 1st.

    Today we at work got a rude awakening at the changes coming near year. I hope I’m wrong.


  3. I love how the two lines in this graph started to converge, and once they got close, they took off in the opposite direction.

    I think we’ll only see a raging 2013 market if sellers are reasonable, which is unlikely – and this graph is a precursor.


  4. the time to buy was in 2009.


  5. Comments back, cool! I don’t think we’ll see inventories coming back so prices will continue to tick up. Sellers will rule the roost through next year even with energy costs, inflation and low wages.

    The foreclosure wave is now in the mirror and whatever banks are sitting on they will just trickle out.


  6. Thanks for turning the comments back on, I find them almost as valuable as JtR posts themselves.

    I’ve been bearish in past years, and am unconvinced by the exuberance. Taxes are going up without doubt for all workers 2%, due to the expiration of the SS tax break, which will hit the lower end harder. And for the upper end, taxes going up seems likely, the only question is the degree. Even the Rs seem to have accepted a decrease in deductions (MID limited to $500k? Capping total deductions at $25k?). Either way, this will chip around the edges.

    Combined with limited inventory and unrealistic sellers (see graph above!), I suspect this will be another flat year.


  7. I’m seeing real strength in lower price CV. Friend just sold house (using her relative as realtor) and got $50k more than she could have months ago and had multiple cash offers, sold in days. Buyers are there and inventory is low.


  8. I think the economy will go into recession next year but the housing market will be the bright spot. If I had to guess pricing will remain higher and continue to rise. I’d be looking for a slow down in the sales numbers in about a year once the euphoria wears off a bit. I do think this spring won’t be as exciting as last spring because while there will be buyers, I think the sellers will be lacking.



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