Over the weekend I was discussing with a new client my outlook for 2010.
He said that in person I sounded more optimistic about the market than on the blog, andĀ I agreed.Ā Some is due to trying to provide all evidence and let you decide, but more is due to recent activity.
Watch this youtube, and you’ll see reasons why I think the local real estate market isĀ going to take off like a rocket in 2010:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell āas isā and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for āas isā and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldnāt be more pleased with their representation. Thank you Donna and Jim, Jerry and MaryTrustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years. Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends ā in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community. In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass ā we are forever grateful to them.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough! Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale. Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process. For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further! ---Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jimās first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You canāt make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the ācan doā attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donnaās organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless. So grateful that I had them on my side!Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. The Good The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market. The Great Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them. The Outstanding We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time. The Truly Exceptional Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs. The Recommendation For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready. Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free. Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.Load more
Asking prices are coming back down after their runup this summer.
link
Certainly, the market will be “hot” if sellers price things right or banks stop extending and pretending and just let them go to the trustee’s sale.
I expect a wild ride. Some steals, some bidding wars. I don’t know which will prove market indicators. My advice for 2010: “be nimble.”
Trustee sales don’t show up as comps, correct? Does it make a difference if it goes back to bene or to a 3rd party?
Trustee sales donāt show up as comps, correct? Does it make a difference if it goes back to bene or to a 3rd party?
I don’t agree that a trustee sale is a true comp. There’s a difference in buying a house with cash and no protection, versus a normal escrow process. I will say that REOs and short sales are true comps since they are purchased on the open market with the escrow process in place.
It’s all market data, it depends who is looking at it, and what their level of expertise is when deciding what to do with it.
Fresh REOs (being listed for the first time) should be considered retail, because they’ll get the most action – and “everyone wants to steal one from the bank”. The listing agents who actively market the homes and are easy to work with will be selling REOs at retail-plus.
Short sales will be all over the map. There could come a time when you tie-down a short sale, six months later it gets approved, and in the meantime some higher sales may close nearby.
The trustee sales will be unpredictable, but likely to have spurts where banks decide to dump a handful here, a dozen over there. The properties with huge second loans that wash out will be real plums.
“3.Trustee sales donāt show up as comps, correct?”
It’s sort of like buying a BMW at auction vs buying a BMW Certified Pre-Owned from the dealer. They are both sales transactions but with very different degrees of risk and requirements.
JtR ~ Can’t get a hold of you! Your Carlsbad phone # is constantly busy this morning. Remember me? I was drooling over that solar home up here on the Central Coast last spring.
At that time, you wrote me an email which began *Chuckle* “Hate to break your heart but…” At least I can now laugh about it.
I hope you still have my phone # and can call me sometime today. I’m off to do errands, but–if possible–can you call me after 4 PM. Mahalo nui loa!
Jordan T, as a potential buyer, I’ll reluctantly agree with you. I like Game Agent’s analogy too.
I wonder what percentage of flip buyers know what price the flipper paid at the trustee sale. Heck, I wonder what percentage of realtors bother to know that. Would people still be falling all over themselves to pay $750k for a home if they knew the flipper paid $599k a few weeks ago? (Sadly, something tells me the answer is yes.)
“I donāt agree that a trustee sale is a true comp. Thereās a difference in buying a house with cash and no protection, versus a normal escrow process. I will say that REOs and short sales are true comps since they are purchased on the open market with the escrow process in place.”
If trustee sales are a rare occurence, then I’ll agree with “not a comp”. But when they have a high presence (such as in the current market), then they should be counted as comps. At that point, they are a true influence within the market and should be considered a dynamic. Not being counted as such simply starts to become a loophole that can be exploited.
that one for $539 in summerwalk on a cul-de-sac and encinitas schools….tempting! if I could buy on the courthouse steps that would have been a nice one.
That house in la costa greens, where is it? Is it on the san marcos school side?
Not many buyers or agents know what the previous sales price was. Most flippers are adept at recording their trustee’s deed so the price is undisclosed, and nobody knows how to look any further to find out, and give up.
Those properties that have the previous sales price published don’t seem to bother people, as long as the appraisal comes in.
We had the one on Roja. The flipper paid $170,000 in July, invested real money ($40K cash), listed for $297,000 in November, and sold for $312,000 – and the appraisal came in at $312,000. The $170,000 sales price was on the MLS and tax rolls.
San Marcos schools.
We were also talking yesterday about how things that didn’t used to affect buyers as much, sure make a difference now.
Hey Jim- what are your thoughts/experiences with interest rates? It seems to me a 1pt move is roughly equivalent to 10% of purchase or monthly payment.
With the talk of the Fed stopping their MBS purchases and the speculation of what that’d do to mortgage rates (if anything), I got to wondering what we’ll be in for in the spring.
stats says about 70 grand is rough income for carsbad folks.. are these people in a position to buy houses in the 500 grand price range? as an outsider i don’t understand where the money is coming from… thoughts?
Must be exhausting for buyers with all these mixed signals. Probably will get people to overpay just to end the agony of the hunt.
James-
The money(and craziness) for a lot of the current purchases comes directly from a country that is about a 13 hr flight heading east Of Cali. I will reckon that this country will one day possible own California. Remember when the Japanese were doing this crazy buying here 20 yrs ago.
hmmm.
thanks observer.. if i read you right, the money is coming from outside the country.. a 13 hour flight would get you to europe… i wonder what the rental verses owner ratio is in carlsbad?
With the Internet, high-knowledge buyers will know what the previous sale was for in a flip (such info is easily found on sites such as Redfin and Zillow). Of course, in the cases where the flipper does actual repairs or improvements instead of just instaflipping, the amount of money they add in value by doing such is not reflected.
Plus, more people can buy a flip than at the trustee sale, or even an REO-listed fixer. FHA, for one, won’t loan on a fixer (yeah yeah, FHA 203k does exist, but that’s pretty rare and complicated). On top of that, if the flipper does the repairs, those costs get wrapped up in the main loan, further reducing out of pocket expenses. That is, let’s take a $200k property that needs $50k worth of work. A FHA buyer might have the $7k down needed but have absolutely no way to come up with an additional $50k for the repairs. But if a flipper buys it, does the $50k worth of repairs, takes $50k worth of profit, plus pays $19k commission (6%), and charges $319k, that FHA buyer can probably come up with the $11k needed for the 3.5% down. The flipper then provides a service above and beyond the repairs alone.
That front archway resembles a penis. Great.
Jim,
How about the one I contacted you about the other day? Want to do a story on that one (including the loans)? Only if they turn me down, though! š
Point taken on the short sales, I agree that the length of the transaction makes them iffy to use as comps. If they start to make up a significant part of the market then that would change things, but at this point they don’t seem to.
stats says about 70 grand is rough income for carsbad folks.. are these people in a position to buy houses in the 500 grand price range? as an outsider i donāt understand where the money is coming fromā¦ thoughts?
With 20% down at today’s interest rates (4.875% with no points) is about $2600 a month in PITI. At 33% DTI that’s a $93K/year income. If you figure the median homebuyer in Carlsbad is richer than the median person in Carlsbad this is pretty affordable.
I’m curious about the courthouse step flips – that flop. Either the home purchased was trashed inside or the liens and encumbrances turned problematic when trying to get clear title.
We’ve seen some good reporting on successful courthouse steps purchases – especially the series of videos with Adam (sdrealtor). But the risks haven’t been explored as much.
Some of these homes in the video that went back to the bene… did they have suspicious liens? Why didn’t anyone bid on them if they were such screaming deals?
That’s where Jim’s service that he’s offering – to prescreen some of the properties coming to auction – is so valuable, IMO. Reduces the risks so those of us without brass ones can consider it.
I would love to get a courthouse steps deal but I just dont know if I’d be comfortable buying a $700,000 that I havent actually seen and fallen in love with. Thats my biggest challenge with going that route.
@23 also scraping up $700k is not an easy feat for most folks. Do they accept CA state IOUs?
another bogus stock offering buy wall street so you can repay their tarp debt:
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091214006339&newsLang=en
I agree with UCGal, I think it would be very educational to see you cover a trustee sale gone bad. Something with major structural issues, weird liens, trashed interior, etc.
JTR,
What approximate percentage of homes scheduled for auction do you actually see go to auction? I’m still not seeing many, most are getting put off still.
I sounded more optimistic about the market than on the blog
I doubt homeowners will appreciate your optimism, but I would agree. Hope to see more of the same up here in LALA land.
BTW, apparently someone thought it was a little cool last night near old town and made a bonfire…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/dec/14/fire-causes-3-million-in-damage-to-midway/
http://blog.youwalkaway.com/?p=471
You have got to hear this. 12 days of default Christmas song! Hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MUST SEE. FUNNIEST THING I HAVE EVER HEARD!!!!
Correction, it is the 12 months of defaulting Christmas song. You will die laughing!
I’ve got a couple of “trustee sale gone wrongs” for you, but they are in Las Vegas because that is where I have most of my experience:
1) 6204 Sterling Ranch Way, North Las Vegas purchased at sale 8/7/2007 for $238,465. At the time comps were probably around $270,000. Put on Craigslist almost immediately for $324,900 (way too greedy). They took a loan out on it in April 2008, and finally disposed of it in July 2009 for $170,000. Held almost 2 years, never rented (I passed by there regularly), loss of $68,465 + carrying costs + fees. THAT is an example of what not to do.
2) 320 Mattie Brook Ave, Henderson A real estate broker (who should have known better, but had never bought at the trustee sale before) bought a second mortgage for $54,956. The first foreclosed on him about 9 months later. If you buy a second, you may as well just mail a generous “gift” to your “friends” at HSBC.
But overall, if you look at the success rate of the people who buy at least one property a day, it has got to be around 98%. There’s a reason for it: they only buy the VERY BEST deals.
What about the 3.5 trillion dollars of non subprime loans taht are to reset this year. They would seem to all fall in this category of $800,000 to 1,500,000 homes/ supposed to be a ton of them crashing on the market this year?????