3Q Sales By Area

North County Coastal | Sales and Price Check

November 15, 2013

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For those who are beating themselves up for not buying a year ago, don’t feel too bad – the frenzy exploded. As recently as the third quarter of 2012, the pricing in most areas was still stagnant or trending down.

But look at how the number of sales popped in the 3rd quarter last year – that was the sign that the frenzy was building:

Area	3Q11 #Sales/Avg.$/sf	3Q12 #Sales/Avg.$/sf	3Q13 #Sales/Avg.$/sf
Cardiff	31/$436	10/$436	22/$544
NW Carlsbad	51/$312	46/$313	49/$389
SE Carlsbad	147/$250	165/$256	163/$297
NE Carlsbad	43/$241	38/$238	36/$291
SW Carlsbad	48/$290	88/$280	89/$329
Del Mar	48/$780	42/$714	56/$649
Encinitas	102/$371	131/$377	138/$441
RSF	42/$415	64/$461	75/$497
Solana Bch	16/$471	29/$466	34/$604
Carmel Vly	105/$329	146/$338	134/$379
All Above	699/$383	845/$373	881/$440
SD County	5,727/$236	6,683/$244	6,594/$302

Sales are the precursor – they increased 21% year-over-year between 3Q11 and 3Q12, and were a sign that the market was changing.

But this year’s 3rd-quarter stats include the sales rushed by the rise in mortgage rates. Let’s monitor the 4Q13 numbers very carefully.

Here’s how NSDCC sales look for Oct 1st – Nov. 10th:

2011: 254 sales, averaging $379/sf.

2012: 382 sales, averaging $401/sf.

2013: 328 sales, averaging $496/sf.

Sales were -14%, and pricing +24% year-over-year, which probably means 2014 won’t be as hot as 2013. The third component is inventory, and will make the difference in how 2014 goes in your neighborhood.