3Q Sales By Area

by | Nov 15, 2013 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check

For those who are beating themselves up for not buying a year ago, don’t feel too bad – the frenzy exploded. As recently as the third quarter of 2012, the pricing in most areas was still stagnant or trending down.

But look at how the number of sales popped in the 3rd quarter last year – that was the sign that the frenzy was building:

Area
3Q11 #Sales/Avg.$/sf
3Q12 #Sales/Avg.$/sf
3Q13 #Sales/Avg.$/sf
Cardiff
31/$436
10/$436
22/$544
NW Carlsbad
51/$312
46/$313
49/$389
SE Carlsbad
147/$250
165/$256
163/$297
NE Carlsbad
43/$241
38/$238
36/$291
SW Carlsbad
48/$290
88/$280
89/$329
Del Mar
48/$780
42/$714
56/$649
Encinitas
102/$371
131/$377
138/$441
RSF
42/$415
64/$461
75/$497
Solana Bch
16/$471
29/$466
34/$604
Carmel Vly
105/$329
146/$338
134/$379
All Above
699/$383
845/$373
881/$440
SD County
5,727/$236
6,683/$244
6,594/$302

Sales are the precursor – they increased 21% year-over-year between 3Q11 and 3Q12, and were a sign that the market was changing.

But this year’s 3rd-quarter stats include the sales rushed by the rise in mortgage rates. Let’s monitor the 4Q13 numbers very carefully.

Here’s how NSDCC sales look for Oct 1st – Nov. 10th:

2011: 254 sales, averaging $379/sf.

2012: 382 sales, averaging $401/sf.

2013: 328 sales, averaging $496/sf.

Sales were -14%, and pricing +24% year-over-year, which probably means 2014 won’t be as hot as 2013. The third component is inventory, and will make the difference in how 2014 goes in your neighborhood.

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