For those who are beating themselves up for not buying a year ago, don’t feel too bad – the frenzy exploded. As recently as the third quarter of 2012, the pricing in most areas was still stagnant or trending down.
But look at how the number of sales popped in the 3rd quarter last year – that was the sign that the frenzy was building:
Sales are the precursor – they increased 21% year-over-year between 3Q11 and 3Q12, and were a sign that the market was changing.
But this year’s 3rd-quarter stats include the sales rushed by the rise in mortgage rates. Let’s monitor the 4Q13 numbers very carefully.
Here’s how NSDCC sales look for Oct 1st – Nov. 10th:
2011: 254 sales, averaging $379/sf.
2012: 382 sales, averaging $401/sf.
2013: 328 sales, averaging $496/sf.
Sales were -14%, and pricing +24% year-over-year, which probably means 2014 won’t be as hot as 2013. The third component is inventory, and will make the difference in how 2014 goes in your neighborhood.