San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index numbers were up in April, the fourth month in a row:
| Month | SA | Non-SA |
| Apr 09 | 145.80 | 144.43 |
| Apr 10 | 162.91 | 161.39 |
| Apr 11 | 155.93 | 154.50 |
| This | Year | Below | Jan 12 | 150.60 | 148.74 |
| Feb 12 | 151.47 | 149.07 |
| Mar 12 | 152.09 | 149.68 |
| Apr 12 | 153.14 | 151.75 |
From yesterday’s BI:
According to a new note to clients, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joe LaVorgna fully expects tomorrow’s Case-Shiller number to give an inaccurate read on U.S. home prices.
“[W]e believe C-S is understating recent home price appreciation, as a broad array of other home price metrics is showing a more significant improvement in pricing behavior,” wrote LaVorgna.
He cites four competing home price measures that all show home prices increasing year-over-year, which conflicts with the decline in the Case-Shiller number.
For example, the CoreLogic home price series, arguably the broadest measure of home prices in the US, has increased four months in a row at a +11.8% annualized rate. This is the fastest rate since the four months ending November 2005 (+11.7%). Over the past year, the CoreLogic series is up +1.1%. Importantly, the FHFA home price figures have shown similar price appreciation; the series is up three months in a row at a +11.3% annualized pace. Over the last 12 months, FHFA prices have increased +3.0%.
Additionally, the improvement in the year-over-year growth rates is corroborated by both the median existing and new home price data, where the gains are +7.9% and +5.6%, respectively. Hence, we have four different home price metrics that are showing much more substantial home prices improvement than C-S, leading us to downplay the significance of the latter.
LaVorgna also attributes this discrepancy to lagging data. “Over time, we expect C-S to catch up to these other home price series.”
All of this has us wondering if we should really be paying attention to the Case-Shiller at all.
From cnbc, noting Zillow’s claim that SD is one of the U.S. towns that have bottomed:
San Diego, Calif.
Projected bottom in home values: Q1 2012
Projected 1-year home value growth: 1.7%
Peak in home values: October 2005
Fall from peak: -37.1%
Along with the rest of Southern California, San Diego was hit hard by the recession, with home prices in the city falling 37.1 percent from the 2005 peak.
However, in the past year foreclosures in the city have been dropping, as have foreclosure resales, while year-over-year rent is up nearly 4 percent, signaling a stabilization and a rise in affordability.
With home values in the city on par with their 2002 levels, San Diego values are projected by Zillow to increase by 1.7 percent through March 2013.
It’s interesting how people use stats to make their case. Take the 3 best months of the year for price appreciation (spring selling season) and then report them as annualized numbers to make the case for >10% per year appreciation being back.
There’s no doubt that this spring produced a nice pop and that case-shiller is lagging in showing that fact, but the real truth is probably somewhere in between.
“All of this has us wondering if we should really be paying attention to the Case-Shiller at all.”
If you are left wondering if you should really be paying attention to it at all, maybe the article should contain some description of the technical details behind each method so that you aren’t wondering why you should really be paying attention to it. You would know why you should or shouldn’t.
Just because one is different from the others doesn’t mean that’s the wrong one to be looking at.
Wild claim. Called out. Retrenchment. Wash and repeat.
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/06/26/realtor-guru-10-home-price-jump-possible/164009/
Up is good as long as there is substance and confidence to support it. We really don’t need another bubble so soon. May be the next bubble should explode right after I cashed out so I can retire. 😉
If prices are really at their 2002 levels and all of the make-believe gain of the housing bubble has been undone, that would put things pretty much where I guessed in 2007 they would level off and from here I’d expect to see things track the rate of inflation +- a per cent or so. There’s nothing resembling a “next big thing” to base another boom or bubble on anywhere within sight.
So how “uniformly 2002” are prices throughout the county?
Why would one expect housing prices act “normal” when the last 20+ years have been continuous boom/bust/boom/bust?
Depends on what “normal” is. I’ve always regarded it as what goes on in between booms and busts, when the best or the worst is over and everybody is waiting for something to happen, good or bad.
And IIRC, CA has been boom/bust for more like the past 50 years. At least that’s how it was up in Northern CA before we moved down here.