The old adage, “Buy When Everyone Else Isn’t”, is a favorite.
Currently, the reverse is true – it would be a good time to sell.
With ultra-low mortgage rates, buyers are everywhere, looking for deals. But the inventory had dried up – all the good buys are in escrow, and new listings coming on are pushing higher on list price.
Two examples:
1. There are only a handful of decent 2,800sf-plus houses for sale under $1,000,000 in Carmel Valley.
2. There is ONE house for sale over 3,000sf, and under $795,000 in all of La Costa Oaks, La Costa Valley, and La Costa Greens.
Last year you could find plenty of offerings in both those categories:
Carmel Valley: In 2011, there were 81 houses sold, and 54 listings that cancelled or expired that were over 2,800sf, and under $1,000,000.
LC Oaks/Valley/Greens: In 2011, there were 33 houses sold, and 16 listings that cancelled or expired that were over 3,000sf and under $795,000.
Are prices going up?
I don’t think so, for two reasons. A) Buyers would rather be patient and wait for more new listings, and B) the inventory leftovers are the inferior properties – better to wait for the plums. If prices are going up, it will be with isolated sales, and hard to make a blanket statement or one-liner soundbite.
The sellers of OPTs should do themselves a favor and dump on price, and get in the game – the market is very active! If you are thinking of selling, call Jim the Realtor at (858) 560-7700, or email jim@jimklinge.com!
I’m booked tonight so there won’t be Blog Talk Radio – next scheduled date is March 26th.
Prices are going up in Phoenix, why wouldn’t they go up in San Diego? No foreclosure inventory, and as you say, buyers are everywhere. When buyers become resigned to paying something closer to the new listing prices or going home empty-handed, they will buy at the higher prices. As long as they can afford the payments, that is.
Overpriced turkeys are always out there. The nice property that lists five percent higher than the most recent sales will draw bids when buyers see there is nothing else out there. Prices move up when buyers are more confident and sellers are not desperate. Barring a significant increase in interest rates, I think you will see at least a five percent increase in your market this year.
The inventory might dry up even more the next few months, as potential short sellers wait and see what they can get from the foreclosure-abuse settlement.
Well Jim is accurately reflecting the market on this story..:). How do i have the crystal ball.
I am one of those buyers ( disclosure: jim is not my agent) trying to catch the perfect bottom on my dream home..
North County Coastal Market is Heating Up at a much rapid rate. I am also one of the potential buyers in this area (Aviara 92011). Last week, I was competing with multiple All Cash offers in the upwards of 800k+. This week all the “Good Ones” are gone. Foreclosureradar supply is thinned and depleted in the coastal region. Looks like most of the toxic is squeezed out and strong hands are in play now. I had to increase my offer by good $30k just to stand out in front of all-cash offers.
@Raj
Jim should be your agent.
@Kishan
Is Jim your agent?
Kishan,
Jim got me into Aviara/Mar Fiore 92011 last Oct and sold my home in 92084 as well. Get good help as bubble info sez!
If you just want the zip code, best value:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120010351-7166_Tern_Pl_Carlsbad_CA_92011
If you want the zip + pool and view and condition:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120008891-1346_Cassins_St_Carlsbad_CA_92011
The stock market is doing a moon launch and the FED still has the accelerator firmly on the floor with record low interest rates. I think it is hard to make predictions about future housing prices given all of the variables.
Jim, I always enjoy your perspective. As a Realtor in a County with 300k residents (Sonoma) hundreds of miles to the north I find the similarities and differences in our markets fascinating.February sales were way up here and the countywide inventory is at about 3 months supply. Half the sales were distressed, split evenly between REO and Short sales. Sebastopol, where I live, has 59 active listings priced from $275k to $5.9MM. Maybe 6 of those are priced right. Networking is vital if you want your buyers to have a shot at the really fine rural properties, at least the ones that are priced close to right. “Tom,there’s this 1,000 square foot renovated farmhouse on 2.5 usable acres within easy walking distance of downtown…one of a kind. I’ll be putting it on the market in a month or so,asking $639k. You have the inside track, let me know if you have a buyer”. I had that conversation today.
As a potential buyer, I can say that when I see a comparable sale at a low price (usually distressed sale), I don’t have the stomach to pay more than even 1-2% higher than that for a similar home. It will take more sales volume to get over that inertia.
For instance, I think this sale of a very nice house at Pacific Highlands Ranch will put a ceiling of $1M on any sales there in the next 6 months or even longer. There are several homes for sale there right now and there is nothing wrong with them except for price, but buyers aren’t willing to pay up no matter how scarce the inventory.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5888-Blazing-Star-Ln-92130/home/17206224
iamnoone, when half the market is distressed sales as it is here…those are good comps. At least I have yet to here a buyer say otherwise. Some sellers seem to think it’s 2008..