Bring On the Shadows

Written by Jim the Realtor

March 4, 2012

The current demand for housing doesn’t get much coverage. 

Here’s a video that captures a glimpse of it around Carmel Valley:

25 Comments

  1. Just some guy

    Yeah, but what is going to happen to the CV market when Greece defaults on its debt?

    (snark off)

    I have to wonder if the Ron Paul sign wasn’t deliberate. I used to see (“Bush-Cheney”) signs in some windows while walking around in the Haight district in San Francisco.

  2. Manik from piggington

    Jim

    I encourage you To not keep deleting comments when you do not like the opinion as you are avoiding a free market.

    You will get less constructive feedback which downgrades this site. As I stated earlier your readership and search rankings are driven by the comments , the opinions the links not the videos. Readers will leave for better pastures if all they have is a video of a house , a nice Cadillac or an old rock band.

    You would never see Piggington cherry pick the best comments. IMHO

  3. Maltipoo

    I have two neighbors that just sold their and moved out of state. We habe de ent activity from buyers every weekend but it still too six months to sell. They moved because costs are still too high in SD

    I read an article I the wash that 37% of the people in SD have housings costs that are more than half their income. That is up from 34% in 2009

    San Diego is an expensive place to live.

  4. Maltipoo

    BTW. Please Keep the comments. It is half the fun when reading the site

  5. Jim the Realtor

    I mis-spoke the other day.

    There 45,000 comments on here, not 25,000.

    Back in the beginning, the comments were 95% negative, and I didn’t delete them. If I’ve made it this far, why change now?

    The personal attacks are what get deleted. I’d be an idiot to let people take pot shots at me and my business, and not delete them.

    Rich and CR don’t get personal attacks, that’s why they don’t delete.

  6. BootyJuice

    Rich and Bill run hobby sites, though very useful. Jim runs a site which is an extension of his bricks and mortar bread and butter – his business which provides a living for his own family and many others. Allowing spit ballers to damage his business would be foolish.

  7. Jbirdfunk

    Jim,

    I’ve been reading the last few post comments and felt compelled to say thanks for your site. I think most of us would agree it’s fantastic, I’ve thought that ever since I found it in 2006. You’re a great educator to many and you just give it away. The comments are good and many times insightful but I agree with you that anything bashing you or impacting your business aren’t worth keeping.

  8. just saying

    Jim, please keep doing what you’ve been doing. It’s great, no need to change now.

  9. college joe

    I guess there are reputable and ethical agents doing short sales! I bet that made you happy.

  10. Caymus

    Jim- I agree keep it the way it is now. The comments are educational when supported with good arguments. I rarely see bashing

  11. sdduuuude

    While I agree this shows there is demand, it doesn’t demonstrate “demand at any price”

    If I’m shopping for a 2100 sq. ft house in that area, I would look at this, which has been sitting on the market at $750K for 150 days:

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3425-Lady-Hill-Rd-92130/home/4456883

    It’s 80 sq ft smaller with no stairs. No back yard but nice front yard and very quaint. It shows there is no demand for a 2100 sq. ft house in CV at $350/sq. ft.

    Then there’s this comp:
    http://www.redfin.com/homes-for-sale#!lat=32.95681836053035&long=-117.23901058474429&market=socal&region_id=38129&region_type=2&sf=1,2,3,4&sold_within_days=180&uipt=1&v=7&zoomLevel=16

    The Redfin graph for 92130 cost per sq. ft is down to about $310 now.

    Candela has stairs, small kitchen, outdated.
    No way Candela is an “easy $750”

    I think the demand curve for a house this size in that area is healthy under $320/sq. ft and drops off to nothing over $330/sq. ft.

  12. Sellers need to get off the bong...(the poster formerly known as profhoff)

    sdduuuude – I think Lady Hill shows there is no demand at that price for a noisy 2100 sq ft house with a poor floor plan.

    Lady Hill needs a lot more updating than Candela and Candela has a better location, so it’s an empirical question how high Candela will go.

    We’ll know soon enough!

  13. sdduuuude

    I think there are tradeoffs between the two. The 1-story is significant, I think. I really hate stairs. We stayed at a friends house with stairs over break a couple weeks ago and we wondered “why?”. 1-story means less yard, though.

    I don’t think the freeway noise at Lady Hill is significant, but you may be right that some buyers could be put off.

    The Candella location next to that school is a downside, I think. Nasty traffic dropping kids off right there on Long Run. Both need updating.

    I haven’t been in either so maybe one is more charming. Hard to tell from photos/video.

    I’m not claiming to be an expert. Just that my intuition tells me $750K will not be “easy”. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong and I’ll learn as we go.

  14. Jim the Realtor

    Lady Hill is a two-bedroom house that is ignoring the ovrwhelming market data.

    If Candela doesn’t sell for at least $705,000 it will be because the listing agent took her foot off the gas. The assistant was telling someone that they weren’t looking to push the price, which for most is code for a lower cash offer or their own buyer might slide in cheap.

  15. sdduuuude

    FYI – do a redfin search for all solds in 92130 between 2000 and 2250 sq. ft. Position the map to move Torrey Hills houses off the map.

    Year avg = 326 / sq ft.
    3 mo avg = $314.

    Candela at 2205 sq. ft would be priced at $340/sq. ft to reach $750K.

    Just trying to put more info here so I can check back and see where my logic went bad.

  16. Jim the Realtor

    Logic? Go stand on the curb please, there’s a parade of emotion and frustration barrelin’ through! 😆

    Walk to school is a big plus, new windows, trav and granite slab throughout and hard-to-find big quiet yard with no neighbors looking in. All high on the list of must-haves for family buyers.

    Check Brixton for a comp- Flipper told me that he wouldn’t take less than $765,000 and he just went pending. Comparatively it is such a dog that it barks at traffic.

  17. sdduuuude

    Sorry – not sure what “check Bridging” means ?

  18. sdduuuude

    Ah – I see you fixed it. Brixton. Got it. Why would a flipper list it at $678 if he would not take less than $765 ?

  19. Jim the Realtor

    My bad I am driving and blogging!

    So brixton is a little under candela but he was getting enough offers that he thought he’d get close to $700,000.

  20. Myriad

    Yes.. definitely some shadow demand. In my neighborhood, there were 8 houses on the market in the past month. 2 were sold in the last 30 days and 5 are now pending.

  21. profhoff

    Howling at this great line: “it is such a dog that it barks at traffic.”

  22. just sayin'

    Been in both Candela and Lady Hill. Candela much more desirable house – think Jim is right on at mid $700’s.

    Don’t know if this indicates prices may go up, but this just closed today way higher than any similar nearby home (Lexington), and comparable to a custom home on Del Mar Mesa.
    http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120003095-5267_Derby_Hill_Point_San_Diego_CA_92130

  23. CHR

    Jim, You were just leaving Saturday open house when I arrived. I definitely appreciate this agent giving every buyer a shot. My client submitted an offer Monday evening, and the agent said that by late yesterday afternoon they had at least 12 offers. Buyers like these corner lot locations, and it’s even better that house next door (to the east) is single level.

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