As usual, the pricing forecasts for next year are varied. How do we know what to expect?
The average and the median is +3.55%.
Two entities picked +2.3%.
Just go with the highest at +10.8%?
Moody’s, the leader of the Doom Squad, just couldn’t say flat. They had to go with -0.4%.
None of these supplied their math or any reasoning to justify their guesses.
We do have this going for us:
“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like lowering housing costs for all Americans. He will deliver,” said Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the Trump-Vance transition.
NSDCC 2024 Detached-Home Annual Sales:
Median Sales Price: +9% YoY
Average $$/SF: +7%
Median $$/sf: +10%
Sales +2% and we still have the whole month of December to add!
Guesses on 2024 pricing from last December:
Jim the Realtor: NSDCC +4% in pricing, sales flat
Zillow: +6.5%
Realtor.com: +5.4%
CoreLogic: +2.9%
Goldman Sachs: +1.3%
Freddie Mac: +0.8%
Redfin: -1% (they predict +4% for 2025)
Moody’s: -3.5%
Lawrence Yun of NAR said prices in California could see a 10% decline due to higher rates.
I’m not among you all high and mighty. I suggest 4.4% meaning more than 4% and less than 5% seems likely.
That said, I am always suspicious that the Federal Administration of the moment can have much effect on housing prices. Reviving the double declining balance rule could lower rents. Insurance caps might work for a bit. Interest rates can eventually work but not in time for any current pricing.
Ok and I said +5% for NSDCC and you are in VenCo so let’s assume +5% for all of SoCal.
I think +5% is a lock for 1Q25 and flatsville after that as the inventory surges and buyers back off.
It will feel like a frenzy when we’re in it, and there won’t be any notice when buyers stop on a dime.
Only lower rates will keep it going past March/April.
The SD Case-Shiller flat-lined the last three months of 2023, and the last six months of 2024. It would follow that the last nine months of 2025 would do the same.