Optimistically, what are positive things that could happen this year?
The Fed pauses in March. They meet twice in the first quarter of 2023 – February 1 and March 16th. I’ll live through another 1/2% hike a month from now, but then a surprising Fed pause in March would give the spring market a welcome boost – and hopefully keep mortgage rates in the 5s.
There were close to 2,000 NSDCC homes sold in 2022. We’ll probably have between 1,200 and 1,600 sales this year? A Fed boost would give the spring market a few months to transact in a more-predictable environment, and probably be the difference between 1,200 and 1,600 NSDCC sales.
Have you heard anything new about the site of the old Power Plant in Carlsbad? Or the Ponto site? I didn’t see anything in the city-council agendas from the last couple of months, but they should be in the works. The power plant site is not big enough to be a major residential site, but it would get interesting if try to turn it into a higher-end hotel (like they did at the Alila Marea and at the pier in Oceanside). Nothing on the 14-acre Ponto site either – with a current plan for a luxury resort hotel with 274 rooms and 48 timeshares that’s been for sale at $38,000,000 but they put their listing on hold last week.
If they want to do something to increase the demand for homes, they could make it easier to get a mortgage. Self-employed people still don’t have reasonable access to mortgages at market rates. If a big lender was willing to calculate the borrower’s income from bank statements instead of tax returns, more buyers would qualify. But the loans need to be at a decent rate – and a seven or 10-yr ARM would be fine (it doesn’t have to be a 30-year fixed rate).
Speaking of ways to improve the supply and demand for homes, converting the MCAS Miramar to civilian use should be considered. When the cost of housing is so ridiculous, it makes sense to develop 23,116 acres in the middle of town into a booming, multi-use development that features housing for all. We could be the national example on how to handle the future needs of the people.
The lawsuits against realtors will get addressed towards the end of 2023 and potentially dismantle buyer-agents. It would be awesome if a new auction-based brokerage would hit the scene about the same time!
Other positives about 2023 include it not being an election year, and we’ll be further beyond the pandemic. There should be more commercial and industrial-zoned properties converting to residential uses. The ADUs and aging-in-place will be priorities for many. Every month/year that goes by will push people closer to making their next move – if you know it’s coming, then let’s give it a go in 2023!
I think everyone who buys or sells a home in 2023 will consider it a major accomplishment!
Another:
What if prices didn’t change much for a few years in a row….like they used to? It could happen again, and it would take out much of the anxiety.
Here’s another one…
Banks start foreclosing again + flush out all the deadbeats + push down prices because of the exponential number of properties for sale.
People need to understand that healthy markets go up AND down. For the last 10+ years people have been rewarded for throwing caution to the wind + buying any kind of craziness. If houses lose “value” it’s not like more conservative investors won’t jump in and start buying properties at a perceived discount.
Hi Jim,
I’m curious about how one would go about assuring development of MCAS Miramar would be “housing for all.” Here in Silicon Valley, local politicians are making another push to close Reid-Hillview Airport in east San Jose in the name of “affordable housing” but we all know what would get built there: $2-3 million townhomes, especially since the neighborhood would no longer have the “stigma” of a GA airport (which just happens to be across the street from a Mercedes dealership). Same as has happened to NAS Alameda, Hamilton Field in Marin and Santa Rosa Air Center. San Francisco has been debating how to develop Treasure Island for a quarter century with no agreement in sight.
And Shadash, in case you hadn’t heard, California has made foreclosure illegal.
“And Shadash, in case you hadn’t heard, California has made foreclosure illegal.”
Sucks, but you’re 100% right.
I’m sure not forcloseing on deadbeats will turn out well in the long run.
Realtors, if you want to increase the number of listings in a place like SD where theres a limited amout of free space to build you have to foreclose. Waiting for old people to die + listing at numbers that wont interest the market wont make things happen.