We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets, as shown below. This data excludes international migration.

The winners: Strong housing demand

Strong migration continues in:

  1. Houston
  2. Jacksonville
  3. Charlotte
  4. San Antonio
  5. Fort Worth
  6. Nashville

Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:

  1. Dallas
  2. Atlanta
  3. Tampa
  4. Boise
  5. Orlando
  6. Raleigh-Durham

Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:

  1. Phoenix
  2. Austin
  3. Las Vegas

The losers: Weak housing demand

Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:

  1. Sacramento
  2. Riverside-San Bernardino

Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:

  1. Denver
  2. Salt Lake
  3. Philadelphia
  4. Seattle

Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:

  1. East Bay Area
  2. Orange County
  3. San Diego
  4. San Jose
  5. Miami
  6. Washington, DC
  7. Boston
  8. Chicago
  9. San Francisco

Do we need to label areas as winners and losers? The migration trends are heavily influenced by the cost of housing, and it’s no surprise that the most-expensive areas are having the most people leave – which will leave those areas even more exclusive and affluent.

You can blame politics, taxes, etc. as reasons for the moves, but is comes down to this:

Rich people are staying, and not-so-rich people are leaving – and that’s ok.

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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