We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets, as shown below. This data excludes international migration.
The winners: Strong housing demand
Strong migration continues in:
- San Antonio
- Fort Worth
Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:
Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:
- Las Vegas
The losers: Weak housing demand
Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:
- Riverside-San Bernardino
Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:
- Salt Lake
Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:
- East Bay Area
- Orange County
- San Diego
- San Jose
- Washington, DC
- San Francisco
Do we need to label areas as winners and losers? The migration trends are heavily influenced by the cost of housing, and it’s no surprise that the most-expensive areas are having the most people leave – which will leave those areas even more exclusive and affluent.
You can blame politics, taxes, etc. as reasons for the moves, but is comes down to this:
Rich people are staying, and not-so-rich people are leaving – and that’s ok.