Inventory Watch

by | Jul 24, 2023 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim

In the past week, there were 18 FEWER new listings and 15 MORE new pendings than the week before – and boom, the mid-summer surge continued….but only for some, not all.

A good example of the current market conditions is one of the La Costa Valley 6 that we’ve been following. After four price reductions and 64 days-on-market, this became the best value available and went pending:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/2871-vista-acedera-carlsbad-ca-92009/1299560759783040497

It typifies the struggle for home sellers. Either you can take corrective action to ensure yours is the next to sell, or you can wait. But waiting increases the days-on-market statistic, which invites lowball offers.

Last week, I spoke with a listing agent about a home that had been on the market for three months. They had eight showings in the first two weeks, and NONE since. Buyers are assuming that it’s not worth anywhere close to the list price, and they have no interest in even looking at it, let alone buying it.

Sell in the first two weeks your home is on the market when urgency is higher, or risk getting lowballed.

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
22
$719/sf
75
15
Jan 9
26
$687/sf
50
14
Jan 16
23
$701/sf
52
20
Jan 23
25
$751/sf
60
21
Jan 30
23
$788/sf
45
25
Feb 6
18
$750/sf
59
24
Feb 13
18
$770/sf
48
26
Feb 20
17
$778/sf
49
26
Feb 27
18
$802/sf
48
23
Mar 6
22
$802/sf
44
14
Mar 13
22
$747/sf
45
16
Mar 20
16
$826/sf
49
21
Mar 27
17
$853/sf
47
20
Apr 3
19
$803/sf
37
20
Apr 10
11
$778/sf
53
30
Apr 17
15
$690/sf
44
27
Apr 24
12
$682/sf
33
25
May 1
11
$795/sf
35
27
May 8
14
$780/sf
33
24
May 15
16
$770/sf
37
22
May 22
21
$747/sf
45
18
May 29
20
$757/sf
52
21
Jun 5
23
$755/sf
49
20
Jun 12
17
$711/sf
31
32
Jun 19
16
$674/sf
34
33
Jun 26
20
$677/sf
32
29
Jul 3
21
$645/sf
28
33
Jul 10
23
$692/sf
30
32
Jul 17
21
$730/sf
37
30
Jul 24
21
$704/sf
37
32

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
45
$809/sf
60
18
Jan 9
55
$828/sf
53
19
Jan 16
46
$838/sf
53
30
Jan 23
43
$793/sf
52
31
Jan 30
40
$778/sf
54
34
Feb 6
42
$814/sf
46
30
Feb 13
35
$823/sf
51
39
Feb 20
34
$801/sf
47
40
Feb 27
27
$846/sf
33
45
Mar 6
29
$893/sf
33
41
Mar 13
32
$850/sf
33
39
Mar 20
27
$872/sf
36
41
Mar 27
22
$832/sf
39
36
Apr 3
21
$779/sf
27
36
Apr 10
22
$816/sf
26
33
Apr 17
27
$797/sf
21
33
Apr 24
28
$856/sf
31
34
Apr 24
28
$856/sf
31
34
May 1
30
$789/sf
28
36
May 8
36
$808/sf
25
37
May 15
33
$776/sf
33
44
May 22
35
$818/sf
36
44
May 29
38
$786/sf
33
40
Jun 5
39
$791/sf
34
30
Jun 12
37
$754/sf
37
32
Jun 19
36
$779/sf
35
35
Jun 26
39
$766/sf
34
36
Jul 3
39
$776/sf
41
40
Jul 10
45
$780/sf
37
39
Jul 17
53
$807/sf
29
36
Jul 24
51
$787/sf
32
38

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
52
$869/sf
69
30
Jan 9
57
$940/sf
66
31
Jan 16
50
$948/sf
61
36
Jan 23
51
$949/sf
58
35
Jan 30
54
$964/sf
55
34
Feb 6
60
$930/sf
51
42
Feb 13
51
$1,038/sf
52
47
Feb 20
58
$1,022/sf
47
46
Feb 27
56
$1,064/sf
52
49
Mar 6
57
$995/sf
50
50
Mar 13
55
$1,015/sf
53
47
Mar 20
50
$1,011/sf
58
50
Mar 27
54
$1,039/sf
49
47
Apr 3
54
$1,035/sf
52
38
Apr 10
55
$1,004/sf
48
42
Apr 17
64
$985/sf
47
46
Apr 24
57
$1,001/sf
43
50
May 1
57
$1,008/sf
42
45
May 8
68
$1,031/sf
36
41
May 15
71
$1,007/sf
34
39
May 22
77
$1,003/sf
34
38
May 29
74
$1,002/sf
39
43
Jun 5
77
$991/sf
42
44
Jun 12
82
$986/sf
48
45
Jun 19
90
$978/sf
48
33
Jun 26
90
$1,015/sf
49
33
Jul 3
92
$1,019/sf
49
36
Jul 10
89
$1,021/sf
50
44
Jul 17
97
$1,013/sf
48
42
Jul 24
91
$1,010/sf
48
42

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
29
$1,236/sf
85
6
Jan 9
29
$1,180/sf
80
5
Jan 16
31
$1,196/sf
73
8
Jan 23
33
$1,201/sf
71
7
Jan 30
37
$1,218/sf
70
6
Feb 6
34
$1,236/sf
75
12
Feb 13
43
$1,333/sf
68
11
Feb 20
39
$1,392/sf
71
18
Feb 27
37
$1,323/sf
68
22
Mar 6
49
$1,222/sf
56
20
Mar 13
49
$1,312/sf
49
22
Mar 20
46
$1,321/sf
52
25
Mar 27
50
$1,329/sf
52
25
Apr 3
49
$1,342/sf
51
23
Apr 10
50
$1,321/sf
57
24
Apr 17
47
$1,342/sf
59
26
Apr 24
49
$1,281/sf
63
28
May 1
53
$1,227/sf
62
23
May 8
55
$1,122/sf
63
19
May 15
57
$1,211/sf
59
19
May 22
59
$1,170/sf
61
19
May 29
60
$1,171/sf
60
17
Jun 5
70
$1,178/sf
55
15
Jun 12
64
$1,198/sf
53
18
Jun 19
67
$1,184/sf
54
20
Jun 26
66
$1,204/sf
58
25
Jul 3
63
$1,215/sf
58
22
Jul 10
72
$1,204/sf
59
23
Jul 17
79
$1,173/sf
64
22
Jul 24
78
$1,182/sf
63
23

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
121
$1,744/sf
126
21
Jan 9
119
$1,716/sf
123
20
Jan 16
120
$1,761/sf
121
26
Jan 23
122
$1,707/sf
119
27
Jan 30
120
$1,680/sf
121
30
Feb 6
125
$1,714/sf
118
28
Feb 13
121
$1,750/sf
116
32
Feb 20
129
$1,725/sf
112
33
Feb 27
124
$1,743/sf
115
31
Mar 6
122
$1,753/sf
109
28
Mar 13
120
$1,782/sf
109
32
Mar 20
129
$1,783/sf
106
28
Mar 27
127
$1,781/sf
106
27
Apr 3
131
$1,774/sf
105
27
Apr 10
136
$1,788/sf
107
24
Apr 17
140
$1,776/sf
108
27
Apr 24
141
$1,771/sf
107
31
May 1
142
$1,760/sf
105
30
May 8
140
$1,737/sf
104
32
May 15
141
$1,812/sf
107
37
May 22
145
$1,816/sf
106
29
May 29
142
$1,846/sf
110
36
Jun 5
152
$1,791/sf
107
31
Jun 12
163
$1,777/sf
106
24
Jun 19
166
$1,779/sf
102
26
Jun 26
179
$1,758/sf
98
29
Jul 3
184
$1,670/sf
91
39
Jul 10
192
$1,653/sf
92
42
Jul 17
187
$1,666/sf
94
47
Jul 24
185
$1,668/sf
98
49

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
11
6
263
89
Jan 9
36
15
277
88
Jan 16
36
34
266
114
Jan 23
36
22
269
116
Jan 30
32
25
272
123
Feb 6
46
33
275
131
Feb 13
30
35
265
150
Feb 20
43
34
274
158
Feb 27
27
30
260
165
Mar 6
45
28
276
150
Mar 13
38
38
274
154
Mar 20
39
37
265
164
Mar 27
36
25
267
153
Apr 3
37
28
271
143
Apr 10
36
39
272
151
Apr 17
47
27
291
157
Apr 24
46
41
282
167
May 1
59
31
288
159
May 8
53
26
310
151
May 15
48
31
315
157
May 22
50
24
332
145
May 29
43
37
325
154
Jun 5
43
17
352
137
Jun 12
52
36
357
146
Jun 19
48
30
369
143
Jun 26
65
26
391
148
Jul 3
60
48
394
166
Jul 10
51
34
415
176
Jul 17
55
28
430
173
Jul 24
37
43
419
184

NSDCC Weekly LP Quartiles

Week
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile (Median LP)
3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2023
$2,095,000
$3,695,000
$5,995,000
Jan 9
$1,990,000
$3,495,000
$5,775,000
Jan 16
$2,000,000
$3,574,000
$5,995,000
Jan 23
$2,099,000
$3,595,000
$5,999,000
Jan 30
$2,195,000
$3,525,000
$5,942,000
Feb 6
$2,195,000
$3,598,000
$6,845,000
Feb 13
$2,300,000
$3,795,000
$6,495,000
Feb 20
$2,397,500
$3,950,000
$6,197,500
Feb 27
$2,480,800
$3,970,000
$6,845,000
Mar 6
$2,395,000
$3,749,500
$5,995,000
Mar 13
$2,397,000
$3,772,500
$5,997,000
Mar 20
$2,580,000
$3,995,000
$6,800,000
Mar 27
$2,595,000
$3,995,000
$6,845,000
Apr 3
$2,699,000
$3,995,000
$6,750,000
Apr 10
$2,799,500
$4,074,997
$6,895,000
Apr 17
$2,600,000
$3,995,000
$6,597,000
Apr 24
$2,685,000
$4,074,997
$6,895,000
May 1
$2,695,000
$3,999,000
$6,495,000
May 8
$2,525,000
$3,849,949
$5,946,000
May 15
$2,495,000
$3,749,400
$5,950,000
May 22
$2,444,000
$3,695,400
$6,000,000
May 29
$2,495,000
$3,699,000
$6,395,000
Jun 5
$2,450,000
$3,641,500
$6,000,000
Jun 12
$2,499,900
$3,799,999
$6,496,000
Jun 19
$2,495,000
$3,750,000
$6,497,000
Jun 26
$2,450,000
$3,799,000
$6,495,000
Jul 3
$2,479,000
$3,891,500
$6,235,000
Jul 10
$2,468,000
$3,900,000
$5,998,985
Jul 17
$2,350,000
$3,669,000
$5,949,000
Jul 24
$2,399,000
$3,799,999
$5,995,000
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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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