3 emerging migration "hot spots" to watch over the next few years:
Northern New England
NW Arkansas
Upper Great LakesWhere are the new households coming from (and why)?
Quick?… pic.twitter.com/RQXCWDBDGW
— Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) June 24, 2023
In Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow is a chapter titled “The Law of Small Numbers.” He points out we have a bias toward finding patterns in what is really random data, and small data sets are particularly prone to sampling error that can lead to incorrect conclusions. Seems that is what is happening here: this person has taken migration data for a few thousand people over a single year, and tried to extrapolate that to a long-term trend. Also interesting that he ignores the part of his map that shows the greatest migration: the dark green areas in the northern Rockies. Perhaps he can’t come up with a compelling explanation for that migration?
Ross is correct. The tyranny of small numbers. It takes very few people moving to any of those areas to look like a trend when in fact half or one quarter people can’t move so a whole person is outsized percentagewise in those places.
I just hope to get a few more people off the couch and go for a road trip. Who knows what you might find.
England/Scotland in October but thinking of adding a week in front or back for New England colors.