2023 Forecasts

Forecasts | Jim's Take on the Market | Why You Should List With Jim

December 20, 2022

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The 2023 real estate forecasts keep coming in.

With the radical change in market conditions, the annual statistics are going to look dramatically different from the more recent activity – look at these differences in home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad.

NSDCC 2022 Annual Sales, and Sales Since Nov 1st:

Data Point	Jan 1-Dec 20	Nov 1-Dec 20	% Difference
Median LP	$2,292,500	$1,989,000	-13%
Median SP	$2,321,000	$1,890,000	-19%
Median DOM	15	28	+87%
Median SF	2,727sf	2,609	-4%
Median $/sf	$828/sf	$740/sf	-11%
Average $/sf	$970/sf	$826/sf	-15%

My guesses?

I’m predicting a +5% change in the current NSDCC median sales price of $1,890,000 which gets us back to almost $2,000,000. Combine the softer pricing with current seller disappointment and the damage has been done – the 2023 local inventory should be so low that it helps to create a floor in pricing.

Here are several more opinions:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2022/12/19/experts-predict-what-the-housing-market-will-look-like-in-2023/