Yesterday’s Case-Shiller Index for San Diego was 425.26, which is 11% higher than it was in January.
But check how the trend increased between January and now.
Prices rose as fast as ever in early 2021 (yellow above). If they would have mellowed out along my red line, then we would have experienced slightly-increasing prices for the last year. But noooo! Instead, the early-2022 buyers – egged on by their realtors – insisted upon paying ridiculous amounts over the list price to win a house. Hopefully that practice is done.
The only reason the June reading was 11% higher than January was because it came down a bit. The San Diego Case-Shiller Index rose 11.2% between January and April, 2022, which was an annual clip of 33.6% – which nobody would have believed was sustainable after rising 43% since the pandemic started.
If the SD Case-Shiller just goes back to where it started in January, it will be a 10% drop from today, which will sound like a disaster. But the annual appreciation will be zero, which is not only reasonable, but sustainable for a while.
Is anyone going to mind if we start 2023 where we started 2022, price-wise? If mortgage rates can stay in the 5s, and hopefully the low-5s, we should be fine!