Sales are down, and listings are sitting longer, so it would be easy to assume the market is dead.
Buyers want it to believe the market is dead so they don’t have to act. They are seeing everything though doom-colored glasses, which reinforces that it’s a great time to play it safe.
I’ve been saying that buyers are on vacation, and I said it a little stronger on the video last night. But I’m sure there are some who think I’m just talking my book, and then gravitate back to the fence where it is really comfortable right now.
How can we tell if the market really is dead, or just taking a break?
The best way is to monitor the Zillow views and saves – and hope Zillow doesn’t manipulate those too.
Here is a cross-section of new listings this week:
According to the listing agent, they received TEN offers here. They accepted one, and has a backup too:
On Sunday morning, this listing right around the corner from the one above hit the MLS, which probably caused the losers from Palenque to rush over for a look.
This is in a neighborhood that is notorious for small yards (they are detached condos officially), but this yard looks decent – check the views and saves here after just 4 days on the market:
Oh, yeah Jim but those are starter homes – what else do you have?
How about this new listing in Olde Carlsbad, which is not only a very eclectic area (i.e., lower comps nearby) but there is freeway noise and buses roll down Highland daily. Yet the agent had so much action on this new listing that she raised the price – substantially:
Carmel Valley is known for its newer homes, and no one would be surprised if those dodge the bullet. But this was built in 1985!
It’s not just the cheapies either:
Look at the number of Zillow views and saves!
Just based on those, there is a strong undercurrent of buyers who are monitoring the market closely – and with school starting, this has to be the worst week of the summer for distractions! We may coast through the rest of 2022, but don’t be surprised if the frenzy conditions bounce back in 2023!
My listing – how can I have this much action and not be optimistic:
Jim not sure if Zillow manipulates but I don’t think they regulate aka some obsessive/compulsives can run up a view count real quick. I think. I know few of ’em……
Anyway I agree a spring ’23 frenzy could be on the horizon. Or not. It’s a long way off. How’s that for a commitment to a (non) prediction? I’m mostly watching employment, income, and what is happening in alternative markets.
With 30-yr mortgage interest rates in the 2’s, 3’s, 4’s for the past 10 years, this has been a generational buying opportunity for North Coastal SD county. Prices are still a buy now when compared to other overpriced metros.