Yesterday I joined Molly of Real Talk Media for a couple of thoughts about next year’s market:

The key to market conditions will be the inventory – no surprise there.

If there was a surge of newer McMansions for sale that were upgraded, well-presented, and had decent backyards, it would light the market on fire, mostly because we haven’t had many of those.

But it is more likely that we will have more of what we’ve had lately – homes for sale that are of the scratch-and-dent variety. They are ok, but not the premium creampuffs that every buyer desires.

The higher-end market will probably struggle a bit as sellers and agents slip back into the old normal where they ‘list ’em high and let them ride’, believing that it takes months to sell a more-expensive home. It doesn’t, but if you don’t have to sell, have plenty of time, and you’re not going to give it away, it is a fine strategy. Call Opendoor and see what they say.

There will be fewer realtors overall, and hardly anyone working with buyers – it’s too hard, and too time-consuming. With less good help, the price will really need to be right for buyers to proceed on their own.

Pricing? We don’t have a good way to measure, just bad ways. The median sales price will probably trend downward due to fewer of the higher-end sales.  But sales of the sub-$3,000,000 creampuffs between La Jolla and Carlsbad will determine whether the median sales price goes up or down.