Here are two more charts from Bill that indicate how the San Diego market is bucking the national trend.
Compared to last year, our inventory keeps going down!
I don’t know what property types are included in Bill’s counts, but let’s use the SDMLS count for number of detached and attached homes sold in 2021, which was 39,671 / 12 = 3,305 average number of sales per month – but 2021 was a huge year.
What was the average in a fairly normal year? The 2019 average was 2,904 sales per month.
In San Diego County, we can expect 2,900 to 3,300 home sales per month.
Look how many active listings there were last month (well into the 5%-rate era):
The market is being starved out. Other areas in the country are getting surges of inventory, but we’re not. Without a major surge, sellers can wait this thing out, and hope that buyers come around.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-753
The worst part for home buyers is that this will probably be as good as it gets in 2022.
We will have a couple of hot streaks where buyers capitulate and we’ll see a flurry of sales, but once we get past summer it should quiet down to a very slow crawl – only because there won’t be anything for sale.
Do you believe SD inventory trend will follow the other markets (large increase) with a delay or it will be a completely different behavior?
Do you believe SD inventory trend will follow the other markets (large increase) with a delay or it will be a completely different behavior?
I don’t think we will see any large increases in inventory around San Diego. There might be some occasional spurts, but nothing major.
We have never gone so long without a correction. Agents who are 12-yr veteran realtors have never seen anything like this, and are in pure panic mode…..just like I was the first time around.
Once everyone gets the memo that you can’t price wildly above comps any more, this will all settle down.
Rates aren’t going to go up much more, and buyers will get used to 5%-6% mortgages.
> Rates aren’t going to go up much more, and buyers will get used to 5%-6% mortgages.
Is there a baseball tickets contest for this? I think we might see 7.25% in 2023.
Rob, I’d take you up on that bet. But you don’t believe in supply and demand. So…
Josh, after seeing today’s 8.6% inflation number are you feeling so sure?