The association is predicting that home sales in California will drop next year, but has a typical guess for the statewide median sales price – expecting a 5.2% rise in 2022:


Their predictions for this year were terrible – they thought pricing would go nearly flat in 2021 (in red box), and instead we had the biggest gain ever (p is projected):


These were my guesses for this year:


  1. We will have 10% more NSDCC listings than we had in 2020.
  2. We will have 10% more sales.
  3. We will have a 10% increase in the NSDCC median sales price.

Here’s how this year looks through the first three quarters of 2021:

# of Listings (%YoY)
# of Sales (%YoY)
Median Sales Price (%YoY)
3,677 (-7%)
2,207 (+3%)
$1,424,000 (+8%)
3,078 (-16%)
2,535 (+15%)
$1,880,000 (+32%)

NSDCC inventory DROPPED 16%, yet sales ROSE 15% this year!  Pricing is +32%!

A graph showing how more people need to leave town to make it worth moving:

A CAR consumer survey showed, for example, that 35% of home sellers are moving out of state and fewer than 15% were moving to a home in the same county as their last residence. “I think that pressure to migrate out of the state is going to be just as strong, if not stronger, as housing, affordability gets worse,” CAR Chief Economist Jordan Levine said. “I think that this is a housing-driven phenomenon, and we don’t have a lot of relief in terms of housing affordability.”

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