Inventory Watch

by | Mar 1, 2021 | Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Inventory | 6 comments

My theory this week to explain what’s happening today?

The ultra-low mortgage rates are the problem.

Specifically, the decline in mortgage rates over the last two years have caused more of the existing homeowners to refinance, rather than move.  In the graph above, you can see how the supply of homes for sale has declined in a similar trend to mortgage rates. Low rates have spurred more interest from buyers, but the drop in supply hampers their ability to take advantage of it.

If and when rates rise, it won’t change the problem with low supply because the refinanced homeowners have packed it in – they’re not moving no matter what happens to rates. They are locked in forever!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Under $1,000,000 Market

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020
40
$453/sf
51
40
Jan 13
41
$483/sf
48
42
Jan 20
37
$467/sf
51
51
Jan 27
36
$462/sf
46
51
Feb 3
30
$464/sf
51
52
Feb 10
29
$459/sf
39
59
Feb 17
31
$451/sf
37
60
Feb 24
35
$470/sf
32
57
Mar 2
23
$454/sf
42
54
Mar 9
23
$473/sf
32
62
Mar 16
30
$476/sf
31
59
Mar 23
32
$486/sf
33
55
Mar 30
40
$475/sf
32
44
Apr 6
40
$476/sf
32
34
Apr 13
45
$486/sf
31
32
Apr 20
51
$500/sf
30
34
Apr 27
49
$485/sf
31
43
May 4
59
$477/sf
33
38
May 11
64
$485/sf
34
43
May 18
58
$491/sf
37
46
May 25
56
$480/sf
35
58
Jun 1
45
$503/sf
36
72
Jun 8
44
$478/sf
37
75
Jun 15
43
$485/sf
37
74
Jun 22
42
$474/sf
31
79
Jun 29
48
$476/sf
32
71
Jul 6
38
$459/sf
38
69
Jul 13
40
$476/sf
31
74
Jul 20
34
$475/sf
33
73
Jul 27
40
$547/sf
31
68
Aug 3
39
$531/sf
30
69
Aug 10
33
$546/sf
25
75
Aug 17
28
$533/sf
22
67
Aug 24
33
$535/sf
22
64
Aug 31
30
$552/sf
27
62
Sep 7
33
$531/sf
22
66
Sep 14
30
$529/sf
26
60
Sep 28
25
$545/sf
39
Oct 5
25
$538/sf
23
Oct 12
23
$566/sf
28
Oct 19
20
$461/sf
20
Oct 26
21
$450/sf
20
Nov 2
20
$437/sf
24
Nov 9
27
$486/sf
26
Nov 16
19
$530/sf
29
Nov 23
23
$538/sf
28
Nov 30
19
$547/sf
35
Dec 7
13
$499/sf
37
Dec 14
8
$479/sf
63
Dec 21
11
$454/sf
25
Dec 28
12
$501/sf
23
Jan 4, 2021
7
$512/sf
39
32
Jan 11
6
$513/sf
15
28
Jan 18
8
$531/sf
8
27
Jan 25
5
$543/sf
5
30
Feb 1
7
$515/sf
3
28
Feb 8
11
$609/sf
5
25
Feb 15
10
$518/sf
7
31
Feb 22
6
$424/sf
8
33
Mar 1
6
$493/sf
8
33

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020
89
$615/sf
67
72
Jan 13
93
$598/sf
65
71
Jan 20
87
$612/sf
66
73
Jan 27
93
$589/sf
59
65
Feb 3
96
$576/sf
54
65
Feb 10
94
$559/sf
62
84
Feb 17
80
$542/sf
64
100
Feb 24
90
$530/sf
61
97
Mar 2
93
$529/sf
56
91
Mar 9
100
$537/sf
46
98
Mar 16
101
$521/sf
44
105
Mar 23
111
$522/sf
44
90
Mar 30
114
$528/sf
43
75
Apr 6
115
$528/sf
50
69
Apr 13
116
$525/sf
48
58
Apr 20
118
$539/sf
52
57
Apr 27
121
$538/sf
48
64
May 4
122
$524/sf
50
72
May 11
128
$519/sf
46
77
May 18
151
$520/sf
40
69
May 25
152
$535/sf
43
87
Jun 1
147
$540/sf
42
109
Jun 8
149
$530/sf
44
115
Jun 15
146
$518/sf
42
125
Jun 22
160
$522/sf
36
133
Jun 29
153
$524/sf
35
137
Jul 6
133
$525/sf
38
150
Jul 13
127
$526/sf
36
152
Jul 20
122
$542/sf
34
158
Jul 27
122
$544/sf
37
169
Aug 3
112
$559/sf
37
154
Aug 10
120
$551/sf
33
151
Aug 17
113
$608/sf
33
158
Aug 24
99
$603/sf
34
158
Aug 31
94
$600/sf
35
146
Sep 7
87
$567/sf
28
157
Sep 14
79
$559/sf
31
156
Sep 28
91
$576/sf
33
Oct 5
81
$565/sf
31
Oct 12
78
$550/sf
32
Oct 19
74
$541/sf
25
Oct 26
68
$539/sf
25
Nov 2
64
$550/sf
27
Nov 9
58
$550/sf
36
Nov 16
61
$560/sf
29
Nov 23
51
$609/sf
38
Nov 30
36
$607/sf
53
Dec 7
36
$627/sf
41
Dec 14
32
$657/sf
31
Dec 21
35
$625/sf
33
Dec 28
23
$623/sf
46
Jan 4, 2021
27
$631/sf
34
66
Jan 11
33
$595/sf
56
61
Jan 18
25
$593/sf
31
66
Jan 25
26
$589/sf
27
71
Feb 1
24
$692/sf
38
75
Feb 8
21
$675/sf
41
78
Feb 15
24
$657/sf
32
72
Feb 22
22
$677/sf
31
70
Mar 1
36
$655/sf
25555
69

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020
113
$605/sf
71
57
Jan 13, 2020
113
$664/sf
67
59
Jan 20
113
$658/sf
61
50
Jan 27
103
$654/sf
66
59
Feb 3
104
$664/sf
60
59
Feb 10
110
$667/sf
54
62
Feb 17
111
$650/sf
55
72
Feb 24
110
$634/sf
60
76
Mar 2
115
$644/sf
51
77
Mar 9
121
$665/sf
50
80
Mar 16
125
$665/sf
49
79
Mar 23
119
$665/sf
52
70
Mar 30
126
$660/sf
51
59
Apr 6
130
$650/sf
51
56
Apr 13
132
$646/sf
56
49
Apr 20
138
$658/sf
53
47
Apr 27
157
$668/sf
53
47
May 4
151
$665/sf
59
53
May 11
150
$650/sf
63
60
May 18
156
$650/sf
64
58
May 25
169
$643/sf
61
61
Jun 1
162
$655/sf
62
76
Jun 8
168
$655/sf
64
70
Jun 15
161
$668/sf
61
84
Jun 22
170
$678/sf
56
96
Jun 29
170
$686/sf
59
94
Jul 6
160
$700/sf
60
92
Jul 13
155
$683/sf
56
106
Jul 20
156
$692/sf
56
109
Jul 27
146
$705/sf
55
108
Aug 3
129
$719/sf
47
119
Aug 10
128
$698/sf
52
120
Aug 17
123
$714/sf
51
126
Aug 24
118
$683/sf
55
131
Aug 31
115
$701/sf
48
122
Sep 7
107
$648/sf
46
122
Sep 14
116
$670/sf
45
115
Sep 28
109
$647/sf
39
Oct 5
105
$683/sf
39
Oct 12
100
$673/sf
41
Oct 19
104
$633/sf
39
Oct 26
98
$681/sf
44
Nov 2
86
$694/sf
44
Nov 9
78
$700/sf
48
Nov 16
77
$677/sf
48
Nov 23
71
$652/sf
44
Nov 30
62
$691/sf
51
Dec 7
65
$684/sf
46
Dec 14
63
$695/sf
48
Dec 21
41
$736/sf
43
Dec 28
38
$744/sf
50
Jan 4, 2021
40
$784/sf
55
73
Jan 11
43
$717/sf
51
68
Jan 18
32
$789/sf
46
72
Jan 25
35
$708/sf
39
75
Feb 1
39
$746/sf
27
77
Feb 8
39
$760/sf
27
82
Feb 15
43
$679/sf
29
80
Feb 22
45
$686/sf
29
87
Mar 1
42
$810/sf
32
91

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019
161
$744/sf
106
33
Jan 6, 2020
147
$756/sf
97
31
Jan 13, 2020
149
$755/sf
94
27
Jan 20, 2020
150
$749/sf
89
27
Jan 27, 2020
154
$738/sf
91
29
Feb 3, 2020
162
$745/sf
86
33
Feb 10, 2020
169
$753/sf
83
33
Feb 17, 2020
166
$735/sf
81
43
Feb 24, 2020
155
$737/sf
86
58
Mar 2, 2020
156
$731/sf
78
55
Mar 9, 2020
157
$726/sf
78
61
Mar 16, 2020
166
$736/sf
75
57
Mar 23, 2020
167
$730/sf
79
45
Mar 30, 2020
163
$734/sf
80
44
Apr 6, 2020
153
$771/sf
81
37
Apr 13, 2020
159
$765/sf
78
33
Apr 20, 2020
153
$773/sf
80
37
Apr 27, 2020
156
$761/sf
82
29
May 4, 2020
165
$756/sf
77
24
May 11, 2020
162
$772/sf
77
27
May 18, 2020
163
$784/sf
79
31
May 25, 2020
157
$779/sf
79
39
June 1, 2020
141
$787/sf
79
49
June 8, 2020
141
$785/sf
82
49
June 15, 2020
148
$798/sf
73
60
June 22, 2020
144
$810/sf
78
63
June 29, 2020
146
$795/sf
80
61
July 6, 2020
136
$799/sf
80
59
July 13, 2020
137
$824/sf
77
62
July 20, 2020
142
$851/sf
67
72
July 27, 2020
144
$845/sf
69
84
Aug 3, 2020
143
$856/sf
69
87
Aug 10, 2020
135
$831/sf
69
87
Aug 17, 2020
137
$823/sf
72
87
Aug 24, 2020
140
$829/sf
74
81
Aug 31, 2020
142
$842/sf
71
86
Sep 7, 2020
133
$802/sf
71
94
Sep 14, 2020
125
$840/sf
70
96
Sep 28, 2020
115
$823/sf
78
Oct 5, 2020
117
$821/sf
75
Oct 12, 2020
113
$824/sf
71
Oct 19, 2020
116
$808/sf
65
Oct 26, 2020
123
$822/sf
64
Nov 2, 2020
108
$831/sf
72
Nov 9, 2020
109
$802/sf
74
Nov 16, 2020
111
$831/sf
75
Nov 23, 2020
109
$828/sf
76
Nov 30, 2020
111
$827/sf
77
Dec 7, 2020
106
$837/sf
83
Dec 14, 2020
104
$840/sf
85
Dec 21, 2020
95
$850/sf
87
Dec 28, 2020
83
$875/sf
95
Jan 4, 2021
76
$855/sf
96
57
Jan 11
77
$861/sf
92
57
Jan 18
75
$886/sf
94
54
Jan 25
70
$936/sf
101
53
Feb 1
68
$944/sf
96
58
Feb 8
72
$935/sf
96
58
Feb 15
63
$993/sf
85
64
Feb 22
65
$871/sf
72
68
Mar 1
58
$866/sf
70
78

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019
267
$1,226/sf
144
28
Jan 6, 2020
246
$1,218/sf
138
29
Jan 13, 2020
256
$1,173/sf
133
28
Jan 20, 2020
261
$1,158/sf
128
27
Jan 27, 2020
258
$1,163/sf
128
27
Feb 3, 2020
258
$1,162/sf
127
32
Feb 10, 2020
259
$1,172/sf
124
37
Feb 17, 2020
265
$1,140/sf
118
36
Feb 24, 2020
268
$1,150/sf
120
39
Mar 2, 2020
267
$1,119/sf
121
37
Mar 9, 2020
276
$1,118/sf
119
38
Mar 16, 2020
276
$1,116/sf
118
40
Mar 23, 2020
256
$1,142/sf
128
40
Mar 30, 2020
244
$1,150/sf
131
40
Apr 6, 2020
231
$1,168/sf
129
28
Apr 13, 2020
230
$1,183/sf
132
25
Apr 20, 2020
224
$1,165/sf
138
26
Apr 27, 2020
221
$1,197/sf
137
22
May 4, 2020
235
$1,194/sf
131
25
May 11, 2020
252
$1,173/sf
129
23
May 18, 2020
261
$1,160/sf
127
23
May 25, 2020
271
$1,156/sf
125
26
June 1, 2020
270
$1,164/sf
124
34
June 8, 2020
264
$1,173/sf
125
39
June 15, 2020
270
$1,158/sf
121
41
June 22, 2020
282
$1,162/sf
117
49
June 29, 2020
287
$1,152/sf
118
47
July 6, 2020
288
$1,145/sf
115
57
July 13, 2020
276
$1,163/sf
116
62
July 20, 2020
280
$1,153/sf
115
62
July 27, 2020
286
$1,183/sf
116
54
Aug 3, 2020
288
$1,186/sf
112
54
Aug 10, 2020
285
$1,177/sf
113
59
Aug 17, 2020
294
$1,178/sf
107
62
Aug 24, 2020
290
$1,181/sf
107
61
Aug 31, 2020
296
$1,185/sf
106
69
Sep 7, 2020
297
$1,180/sf
117
69
Sep 14, 2020
304
$1,215/sf
116
73
Sep 28, 2020
288
$1,238/sf
112
Oct 5, 2020
291
$1,245/sf
122
Oct 12, 2020
291
$1,251/sf
121
Oct 19, 2020
284
$1,273/sf
123
Oct 26, 2020
280
$1,359/sf
127
Nov 2, 2020
272
$1,356/sf
112
Nov 9, 2020
267
$1,357/sf
103
Nov 16, 2020
279
$1,378/sf
99
Nov 23, 2020
266
$1,411/sf
108
Nov 30, 2020
259
$1,408/sf
113
Dec 7, 2020
257
$1,400/sf
134
Dec 14, 2020
248
$1,385/sf
114
Dec 21, 2020
245
$1,362/sf
116
Dec 28, 2020
237
$1,373/sf
120
Jan 4, 2021
221
$1,372/sf
121
56
Jan 11
225
$1,388/sf
119
62
Jan 18
232
$1,379/sf
111
68
Jan 25
242
$1,373/sf
111
59
Feb 1
234
$1,361/sf
114
73
Feb 8
228
$1,414/sf
114
79
Feb 15
226
$1,400/sf
112
90
Feb 22
224
$1,404/sf
113
87
Mar 1
224
$1,386/sf
104
80

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
Jan 6, 2020
56
21
218
Jan 13
76
33
214
Jan 20
71
53
217
Jan 27
62
38
220
Feb 3
75
46
232
Feb 10
97
72
265
Feb 17
82
58
300
Feb 24
70
53
316
Mar 2
79
55
301
Mar 9
106
66
328
Mar 16
83
55
329
Mar 23
59
31
289
Mar 30
63
31
251
Apr 6
57
21
219
Apr 13
48
17
194
Apr 20
63
29
192
Apr 27
79
40
205
May 4
86
40
208
May 11
91
48
226
May 18
95
44
224
May 25
121
69
266
Jun 1
81
92
332
Jun 8
88
67
338
Jun 15
104
82
374
Jun 22
112
78
409
Jun 29
85
69
402
Jul 6
83
88
418
Jul 13
105
93
447
Jul 20
106
98
466
Jul 27
92
80
475
Aug 3
104
101
477
Aug 10
94
91
483
Aug 17
96
87
490
Aug 24
71
87
482
Aug 31
100
86
476
Sep 7
110
93
491
Sep 14
75
70
481
Sep 28
86
67
486
Oct 5
74
91
462
Oct 12
75
92
470
Oct 19
79
77
487
Oct 26
65
85
476
Nov 2
62
90
471
Nov 9
53
71
461
Nov 16
47
55
424
Nov 23
51
92
426
Nov 30
27
60
412
Dec 7
37
58
378
Dec 14
46
62
343
Dec 21
43
62
324
Dec 28
20
42
301
Jan 4, 2021
35
33
284
Jan 11
57
49
271
Jan 18
56
64
278
Jan 25
46
52
280
Feb 1
55
74
306
Feb 8
45
66
316
Feb 15
60
65
332
Feb 22
71
71
338
Mar 1
54
67
346

The MLS ‘upgrade’ of September, 2020 added an extra status type called ‘Active Under Contract’. I’m including those under the pendings, and ‘Actives’ are those marked as active listings for sale. The pendings count by price have been suspended on Sept 28 & Oct 5 and will be in the future until they stop omitting the price (THIS HAS BEEN FIXED STARTING IN 2021).

author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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6 Comments

  1. Mozart
    Mozart on March 1, 2021 at 7:54 am

    I think you’re right. Good observation.

    Only thing that would shift the market would be more new housing supply but that’s not going to happen here.

    Factor in Airbnb and you have investors scooping up other properties in good coastal locations.

    Lastly, out of area money is coming in for second homes and retirement, (or both plus Airbnb).

    We’ve entered a new secular real estate market. Get good help!

  2. just some guy
    just some guy on March 1, 2021 at 7:56 am

    prop 13 all but guarantees no one is going anywhere. who wants to pay today’s price/tax burden during this low rate environment?

    if only prop 19 included a 1 time tax transfer for first time mover uppers.

  3. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on March 1, 2021 at 9:49 am

    It has to be an age thing too.

    Baby boomers have enjoyed moving up 1-5 times in their life, and they have landed in a very suitable home to last them for the duration. Doctors and shopping are close and familiar, and BTW, who wants to sort through all the junk?

    The older they are, the better the location/home because they could buy when it was cheaper!

  4. Joe
    Joe on March 1, 2021 at 10:03 am

    BINGO Jim. Any why sell if you’re moving out of the area anyways? With the ultra-low rate you refinanced at, you can rent out your coastal home cash flow positive. Buy your new home in Idaho, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, or wherever and finance that with a 30-yr at a historically low rate. I don’t see the incentive for selling in this environment, especially with double-digit appreciation forecasted…

  5. Rob_Dawg
    Rob_Dawg on March 1, 2021 at 1:04 pm

    The more we multi owners push rents the more competition we create for purchases.

  6. Annabama
    Annabama on March 2, 2021 at 8:07 am

    Us libertarians can always explain this. You see, the government steps in to “fix” a problem, but in turn ALWAYS creates a new problem, and often worse than the original problem.

    Will take any opportunity to make a free-market plug. 😉

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