Tomorrow we will get the latest pricing data via the Case-Shiller Index.
Last month, San Diego was #3 in the nation with a 12.3% YoY increase, and we should see a similar number tomorrow – only because we may have taken a bit of a breather (see the trend above).
We could see slower appreciation just because there aren’t enough homes selling to reach max momentum:
Months’ Supply of San Diego County Houses For Sale Over 2,000sf:
In previous Januarys (the typical low point for the year) we still had around 3-months worth (or more), but now the houses for sale in the county is down to about one-months’ worth of supply!
If we had a surge of new listings that doubled the current inventory, it’s very likely that there is enough demand to soak it up – and cause prices to go up faster!
If you start at “100” for prices and increase 10% your new base is 110 aka +10. Another 10% on that is 111 aka +11. In other words a steady percentage increase is actually more.
You were always better on the math than me!
The active inventory has already gone down by 3 since this post was published, or -1%.
Here’s why inventory is so low – everything is selling!
NSDCC Closed Sales Jan 1 – Feb 15
2020: 254 sales, $1,394,775 median sales price
2021: 296 sales, $1,692,500 median sales price
Sales +17%, and MSP +22% year-over-year
We’ve discussed this before. “Reported as selling” is likely an ever smaller percentage of properties actually changing hands.
Things are so different old metrics may not apply. Get good help.