Bill and I were talking about Prop 19 yesterday, and we both agreed it doesn’t seem to have much chance of passing because the California Association of Realtors, the authors of the initiative, haven’t been pushing a clear case of why it is important.  The C.A.R. has every realtors’ email address, yet I had not seen much effort to even convince us, let alone the public.

Literally minutes after I said that, an email comes from C.A.R. with their latest TV ads. Both feature the same wildfire victim and are remarkably similar:

Let’s note that if it does pass, the start date is April 1, 2021. If wildfire victims and baby-boomers rush to replace their old home and take their ultra-low tax basis with them, it would add more to the Frenzy of 2021. But I am skeptical that many boomers will decide to move just because of this initiative. The other reasons to move play a bigger part (grandkids, cash-out, more suitable house, etc.) and taking the old tax basis will just be a sweetener.

There is a limit of adding up to $1 million to the old tax basis too.

Read the full text of the initiative here:

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