Inventory Watch

Last week, I said this:

The number of active listings should keep dropping as the year winds down – we have probably seen the 2020 market peak for number of active listings. But we could see the pendings count stay in this range for a few more weeks.

Whoops, the number of active listings have gone up! The MLS ‘upgrade’ last weekend was a disaster, but they seem to be getting a hold of it – so I think my counts are right.

Is the Frenzy of 2021 starting to build? Additional inventory can cause the sales momentum to speed up.

Admittedly, I’m looking for it.

But everywhere I go, boomers are talking about selling their house and leaving town. More for-sale signs are popping up. A few new listings had 20-30 showings over the weekend – and others had none. Contractors are booked solid for weeks. Good dishwashers are back-ordered for 4-6 months.

Back in April, I thought October should be flat – and it starts on Thursday! October inventory and sales should be a great indicator of what we can expect in 2021!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Two technicalities in the Inventory Watch.

Apparently, the hotel project at Dog Beach must have failed, and the listing is active again – see above. I’m going to exclude it because it skews the numbers, especially the days on market.

There is a funny quirk in the MLS ‘upgrade’ that hopefully will be worked out. The total-pendings count is fine, but when you search pendings by price range, about a quarter of them have the list price omitted. The MLS techs should be working on it? Or it will get resolved as the listings are marked sold.

NSDCC Under $1,000,000 Market

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	72	$469/sf	55	49
Jan 14	78	$487/sf	49	48
Jan 21	82	$488/sf	49	49
Jan 28	68	$480/sf	53	64
Feb 4	72	$483/sf	53	69
Feb 11	75	$481/sf	45	74
Feb 18	67	$482/sf	46	76
Feb 25	67	$494/sf	47	67
Mar 4	82	$478/sf	38	64
Mar 11	90	$471/sf	36	65
Mar 18	95	$475/sf	37	69
Mar 25	98	$463/sf	36	72
Apr 1	94	$462/sf	38	71
Apr 8	91	$455/sf	42	75
Apr 15	93	$463/sf	42	75
Apr 22	94	$481/sf	44	78
Apr 29	99	$469/sf	43	84
May 6	106	$466/sf	38	81
May 13	102	$470/sf	38	78
May 20	112	$453/sf	31	79
May 27	110	$464/sf	34	80
Jun 3	113	$469/sf	33	84
Jun 10	109	$463/sf	36	88
Jun 17	109	$465/sf	35	89
Jun 24	105	$474/sf	37	84
Jul 1	96	$474/sf	38	79
Jul 8	89	$472/sf	46	85
Jul 15	100	$490/sf	43	82
Jul 22	94	$494/sf	44	84
Jul 29	97	$493/sf	44	78
Aug 5	99	$490/sf	43	69
Aug 12	101	$482/sf	39	65
Aug 19	103	$487/sf	39	64
Aug 26	106	$476/sf	44	59
Sep 2	96	$471/sf	48	59
Sep 9	88	$477/sf	48	59
Sep 16	94	$474/sf	41	56
Sep 23	86	$467/sf	46	56
Sep 30	84	$467/sf	50	58
Oct 7	80	$487/sf	44	56
Oct 14	82	$478/sf	44	54
Oct 21	70	$470/sf	47	57
Oct 28	66	$458/sf	44	52
Nov 4	60	$460/sf	40	50
Nov 11	71	$462/sf	44	56
Nov 18	72	$472/sf	36	59
Nov 25	66	$473/sf	39	61
Dec 2	57	$481/sf	43	58
Dec 9	58	$458/sf	38	48
Dec 16	51	$458/sf	43	51
Dec 23	46	$463/sf	46	49
Dec 30	45	$460/sf	48	43
Jan 6	40	$453/sf	51	40
Jan 13	41	$483/sf	48	42
Jan 20	37	$467/sf	51	51
Jan 27	36	$462/sf	46	51
Feb 3	30	$464/sf	51	52
Feb 10	29	$459/sf	39	59
Feb 17	31	$451/sf	37	60
Feb 24	35	$470/sf	32	57
Mar 2	23	$454/sf	42	54
Mar 9	23	$473/sf	32	62
Mar 16	30	$476/sf	31	59
Mar 23	32	$486/sf	33	55
Mar 30	40	$475/sf	32	44
Apr 6	40	$476/sf	32	34
Apr 13	45	$486/sf	31	32
Apr 20	51	$500/sf	30	34
Apr 27	49	$485/sf	31	43
May 4	59	$477/sf	33	38
May 11	64	$485/sf	34	43
May 18	58	$491/sf	37	46
May 25	56	$480/sf	35	58
Jun 1	45	$503/sf	36	72
Jun 8	44	$478/sf	37	75
Jun 15	43	$485/sf	37	74
Jun 22	42	$474/sf	31	79
Jun 29	48	$476/sf	32	71
Jul 6	38	$459/sf	38	69
Jul 13	40	$476/sf	31	74
Jul 20	34	$475/sf	33	73
Jul 27	40	$547/sf	31	68
Aug 3	39	$531/sf	30	69
Aug 10	33	$546/sf	25	75
Aug 17	28	$533/sf	22	67
Aug 24	33	$535/sf	22	64
Aug 31	30	$552/sf	27	62
Sep 7	33	$531/sf	22	66
Sep 14	30	$529/sf	26	60
Sep 28	25	$545/sf	39

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	154	$497/sf	58	69
Jan 14	158	$489/sf	54	65
Jan 21	161	$503/sf	55	56
Jan 28	169	$489/sf	52	60
Feb 4	167	$502/sf	50	69
Feb 11	157	$504/sf	51	84
Feb 18	168	$494/sf	47	83
Feb 25	175	$494/sf	49	84
Mar 4	174	$507/sf	44	86
Mar 11	175	$501/sf	44	91
Mar 18	194	$526/sf	43	99
Mar 25	189	$510/sf	44	104
Apr 1	188	$513/sf	45	107
Apr 8	215	$512/sf	45	104
Apr 15	211	$515/sf	46	108
Apr 22	201	$513/sf	49	117
Apr 29	193	$507/sf	49	128
May 6	211	$506/sf	49	121
May 13	201	$497/sf	52	131
May 20	207	$507/sf	48	129
May 27	198	$513/sf	49	133
Jun 3	197	$510/sf	51	129
Jun 10	204	$511/sf	50	129
Jun 17	198	$506/sf	55	117
Jun 24	192	$510/sf	55	120
Jul 1	198	$503/sf	56	119
Jul 8	186	$512/sf	58	123
Jul 15	191	$504/sf	57	126
Jul 22	189	$498/sf	57	125
Jul 29	192	$494/sf	56	120
Aug 5	186	$498/sf	52	119
Aug 12	180	$486/sf	52	114
Aug 19	179	$493/sf	50	127
Aug 26	183	$518/sf	45	120
Sep 2	184	$517/sf	46	105
Sep 9	182	$508/sf	48	105
Sep 16	188	$515/sf	47	100
Sep 23	185	$530/sf	46	93
Sep 30	179	$532/sf	49	95
Oct 7	179	$533/sf	50	97
Oct 14	171	$546/sf	55	94
Oct 21	165	$551/sf	55	99
Oct 28	160	$545/sf	54	103
Nov 4	151	$541/sf	53	103
Nov 11	147	$545/sf	57	104
Nov 18	142	$563/sf	58	103
Nov 25	133	$583/sf	60	109
Dec 2	125	$559/sf	64	108
Dec 9	122	$567/sf	63	95
Dec 16	111	$566/sf	62	90
Dec 23	98	$594/sf	66	81
Dec 30	94	$597/sf	70	70
Jan 6	89	$615/sf	67	72
Jan 13	93	$598/sf	65	71
Jan 20	87	$612/sf	66	73
Jan 27	93	$589/sf	59	65
Feb 3	96	$576/sf	54	65
Feb 10	94	$559/sf	62	84
Feb 17	80	$542/sf	64	100
Feb 24	90	$530/sf	61	97
Mar 2	93	$529/sf	56	91
Mar 9	100	$537/sf	46	98
Mar 16	101	$521/sf	44	105
Mar 23	111	$522/sf	44	90
Mar 30	114	$528/sf	43	75
Apr 6	115	$528/sf	50	69
Apr 13	116	$525/sf	48	58
Apr 20	118	$539/sf	52	57
Apr 27	121	$538/sf	48	64
May 4	122	$524/sf	50	72
May 11	128	$519/sf	46	77
May 18	151	$520/sf	40	69
May 25	152	$535/sf	43	87
Jun 1	147	$540/sf	42	109
Jun 8	149	$530/sf	44	115
Jun 15	146	$518/sf	42	125
Jun 22	160	$522/sf	36	133
Jun 29	153	$524/sf	35	137
Jul 6	133	$525/sf	38	150
Jul 13	127	$526/sf	36	152
Jul 20	122	$542/sf	34	158
Jul 27	122	$544/sf	37	169
Aug 3	112	$559/sf	37	154
Aug 10	120	$551/sf	33	151
Aug 17	113	$608/sf	33	158
Aug 24	99	$603/sf	34	158
Aug 31	94	$600/sf	35	146
Sep 7	87	$567/sf	28	157
Sep 14	79	$559/sf	31	156
Sep 28	91	$576/sf	33

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	108	$628/sf	86	33
Jan 14	107	$647/sf	83	37
Jan 21	113	$665/sf	77	39
Jan 28	116	$676/sf	76	42
Feb 4	125	$665/sf	73	41
Feb 11	131	$670/sf	72	43
Feb 18	132	$674/sf	71	49
Feb 25	130	$670/sf	66	53
Mar 4	134	$677/sf	59	59
Mar 11	143	$674/sf	57	53
Mar 18	143	$649/sf	56	67
Mar 25	133	$642/sf	56	66
Apr 1	131	$621/sf	53	69
Apr 8	139	$618/sf	49	77
Apr 15	149	$630/sf	50	75
Apr 22	145	$616/sf	50	72
Apr 29	148	$605/sf	49	77
May 6	157	$606/sf	48	74
May 13	159	$599/sf	47	72
May 20	170	$612/sf	48	73
May 27	165	$595/sf	50	79
Jun 3	172	$607/sf	52	70
Jun 10	181	$604/sf	52	70
Jun 17	186	$610/sf	56	69
Jun 24	197	$616/sf	56	59
Jul 1	195	$600/sf	58	65
Jul 8	191	$610/sf	58	71
Jul 15	194	$601/sf	58	69
Jul 22	189	$608/sf	58	74
Jul 29	194	$606/sf	60	73
Aug 5	203	$614/sf	61	67
Aug 12	207	$612/sf	64	65
Aug 19	199	$596/sf	64	79
Aug 26	200	$598/sf	64	79
Sep 2	203	$614/sf	62	69
Sep 9	195	$600/sf	66	73
Sep 16	198	$596/sf	66	65
Sep 23	197	$590/sf	68	75
Sep 30	191	$596/sf	68	74
Oct 7	184	$608/sf	70	77
Oct 14	177	$608/sf	61	79
Oct 21	177	$600/sf	62	71
Oct 28	177	$580/sf	61	67
Nov 4	170	$595/sf	62	67
Nov 11	162	$590/sf	66	71
Nov 18	150	$602/sf	69	70
Nov 25	141	$605/sf	69	74
Dec 2	130	$600/sf	69	73
Dec 9	134	$618/sf	65	63
Dec 16	126	$620/sf	70	59
Dec 23	125	$612/sf	77	53
Dec 30	113	$627/sf	79	62
Jan 6	113	$605/sf	71	57
Jan 13, 2020	113	$664/sf	67	59
Jan 20	113	$658/sf	61	50
Jan 27	103	$654/sf	66	59
Feb 3	104	$664/sf	60	59
Feb 10	110	$667/sf	54	62
Feb 17	111	$650/sf	55	72
Feb 24	110	$634/sf	60	76
Mar 2	115	$644/sf	51	77
Mar 9	121	$665/sf	50	80
Mar 16	125	$665/sf	49	79
Mar 23	119	$665/sf	52	70
Mar 30	126	$660/sf	51	59
Apr 6	130	$650/sf	51	56
Apr 13	132	$646/sf	56	49
Apr 20	138	$658/sf	53	47
Apr 27	157	$668/sf	53	47
May 4	151	$665/sf	59	53
May 11	150	$650/sf	63	60
May 18	156	$650/sf	64	58
May 25	169	$643/sf	61	61
Jun 1	162	$655/sf	62	76
Jun 8	168	$655/sf	64	70
Jun 15	161	$668/sf	61	84
Jun 22	170	$678/sf	56	96
Jun 29	170	$686/sf	59	94
Jul 6	160	$700/sf	60	92
Jul 13	155	$683/sf	56	106
Jul 20	156	$692/sf	56	109
Jul 27	146	$705/sf	55	108
Aug 3	129	$719/sf	47	119
Aug 10	128	$698/sf	52	120
Aug 17	123	$714/sf	51	126
Aug 24	118	$683/sf	55	131
Aug 31	115	$701/sf	48	122
Sep 7	107	$648/sf	46	122
Sep 14	116	$670/sf	45	115
Sep 28	109	$647/sf	39

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	161	$744/sf	106	33
Jan 6, 2020	147	$756/sf	97	31
Jan 13, 2020	149	$755/sf	94	27
Jan 20, 2020	150	$749/sf	89	27
Jan 27, 2020	154	$738/sf	91	29
Feb 3, 2020	162	$745/sf	86	33
Feb 10, 2020	169	$753/sf	83	33
Feb 17, 2020	166	$735/sf	81	43
Feb 24, 2020	155	$737/sf	86	58
Mar 2, 2020	156	$731/sf	78	55
Mar 9, 2020	157	$726/sf	78	61
Mar 16, 2020	166	$736/sf	75	57
Mar 23, 2020	167	$730/sf	79	45
Mar 30, 2020	163	$734/sf	80	44
Apr 6, 2020	153	$771/sf	81	37
Apr 13, 2020	159	$765/sf	78	33
Apr 20, 2020	153	$773/sf	80	37
Apr 27, 2020	156	$761/sf	82	29
May 4, 2020	165	$756/sf	77	24
May 11, 2020	162	$772/sf	77	27
May 18, 2020	163	$784/sf	79	31
May 25, 2020	157	$779/sf	79	39
June 1, 2020	141	$787/sf	79	49
June 8, 2020	141	$785/sf	82	49
June 15, 2020	148	$798/sf	73	60
June 22, 2020	144	$810/sf	78	63
June 29, 2020	146	$795/sf	80	61
July 6, 2020	136	$799/sf	80	59
July 13, 2020	137	$824/sf	77	62
July 20, 2020	142	$851/sf	67	72
July 27, 2020	144	$845/sf	69	84
Aug 3, 2020	143	$856/sf	69	87
Aug 10, 2020	135	$831/sf	69	87
Aug 17, 2020	137	$823/sf	72	87
Aug 24, 2020	140	$829/sf	74	81
Aug 31, 2020	142	$842/sf	71	86
Sep 7, 2020	133	$802/sf	71	94
Sep 14, 2020	125	$840/sf	70	96
Sep 28, 2020	115	$823/sf	78

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	267	$1,226/sf	144	28
Jan 6, 2020	246	$1,218/sf	138	29
Jan 13, 2020	256	$1,173/sf	133	28
Jan 20, 2020	261	$1,158/sf	128	27
Jan 27, 2020	258	$1,163/sf	128	27
Feb 3, 2020	258	$1,162/sf	127	32
Feb 10, 2020	259	$1,172/sf	124	37
Feb 17, 2020	265	$1,140/sf	118	36
Feb 24, 2020	268	$1,150/sf	120	39
Mar 2, 2020	267	$1,119/sf	121	37
Mar 9, 2020	276	$1,118/sf	119	38
Mar 16, 2020	276	$1,116/sf	118	40
Mar 23, 2020	256	$1,142/sf	128	40
Mar 30, 2020	244	$1,150/sf	131	40
Apr 6, 2020	231	$1,168/sf	129	28
Apr 13, 2020	230	$1,183/sf	132	25
Apr 20, 2020	224	$1,165/sf	138	26
Apr 27, 2020	221	$1,197/sf	137	22
May 4, 2020	235	$1,194/sf	131	25
May 11, 2020	252	$1,173/sf	129	23
May 18, 2020	261	$1,160/sf	127	23
May 25, 2020	271	$1,156/sf	125	26
June 1, 2020	270	$1,164/sf	124	34
June 8, 2020	264	$1,173/sf	125	39
June 15, 2020	270	$1,158/sf	121	41
June 22, 2020	282	$1,162/sf	117	49
June 29, 2020	287	$1,152/sf	118	47
July 6, 2020	288	$1,145/sf	115	57
July 13, 2020	276	$1,163/sf	116	62
July 20, 2020	280	$1,153/sf	115	62
July 27, 2020	286	$1,183/sf	116	54
Aug 3, 2020	288	$1,186/sf	112	54
Aug 10, 2020	285	$1,177/sf	113	59
Aug 17, 2020	294	$1,178/sf	107	62
Aug 24, 2020	290	$1,181/sf	107	61
Aug 31, 2020	296	$1,185/sf	106	69
Sep 7, 2020	297	$1,180/sf	117	69
Sep 14, 2020	304	$1,215/sf	116	73
Sep 28, 2020	288	$1,238/sf	112

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Pendings
Jan 7	92	24	203
Jan 14	81	35	205
Jan 21	77	33	196
Jan 28	87	47	217
Feb 4	92	45	233
Feb 11	83	48	255
Feb 18	84	52	263
Feb 25	72	39	261
Mar 4	113	52	267
Mar 11	122	63	284
Mar 18	100	64	302
Mar 25	95	70	324
Apr 1	87	53	331
Apr 8	113	58	342
Apr 15	104	59	341
Apr 22	94	67	353
Apr 29	117	74	367
May 6	113	67	364
May 13	86	48	362
May 20	132	55	357
May 27	100	78	375
Jun 3	109	55	365
Jun 10	106	54	366
Jun 17	94	59	363
Jun 24	97	63	344
Jul 1	89	53	343
Jul 8	81	66	363
Jul 15	115	59	364
Jul 22	89	72	367
Jul 29	102	47	354
Aug 5	102	47	336
Aug 12	96	51	328
Aug 19	89	61	350
Aug 26	86	40	326
Sep 2	67	44	300
Sep 9	75	52	305
Sep 16	102	46	296
Sep 23	67	59	301
Sep 30	68	56	306
Oct 7	76	44	305
Oct 14	78	51	302
Oct 21	71	49	296
Oct 28	76	55	291
Nov 4	87	54	283
Nov 11	61	52	291
Nov 18	69	50	288
Nov 25	60	57	303
Dec 2	19	34	297
Dec 9	58	29	261
Dec 16	45	40	251
Dec 23	32	37	232
Dec 30	16	26	226
Jan 6	56	21	218
Jan 13	76	33	214
Jan 20	71	53	217
Jan 27	62	38	220
Feb 3	75	46	232
Feb 10	97	72	265
Feb 17	82	58	300
Feb 24	70	53	316
Mar 2	79	55	301
Mar 9	106	66	328
Mar 16	83	55	329
Mar 23	59	31	289
Mar 30	63	31	251
Apr 6	57	21	219
Apr 13	48	17	194
Apr 20	63	29	192
Apr 27	79	40	205
May 4	86	40	208
May 11	91	48	226
May 18	95	44	224
May 25	121	69	266
Jun 1	81	92	332
Jun 8	88	67	338
Jun 15	104	82	374
Jun 22	112	78	409
Jun 29	85	69	402
Jul 6	83	88	418
Jul 13	105	93	447
Jul 20	106	98	466
Jul 27	92	80	475
Aug 3	104	101	477
Aug 10	94	91	483
Aug 17	96	87	490
Aug 24	71	87	482
Aug 31	100	86	476
Sep 7	110	93	491
Sep 14	75	70	481
Sep 28	86	67	486