I’ve been pedaling so fast these days, I forgot all about the Case-Shiller Index on Tuesday:
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:
The corona might have slowed down pricing a tad, but with the ultra-low rates, we should be back to 1.0% monthly increases over the next few readings.
Nov ’05. the coffee bet! No bet this time.
Pricing will probably change by 10% in the next year…..just not sure if it’s up or down!
Mid-range coastal markets like San Diego and Ventura should see their lower-end pricing go up 10% easily in the next year.
The NSDCC Over-$3,000,000 market today has 287 for sale and 67 pendings, which is great, historically. But by January it will likely be back to 10:1.
Could we have the high-end pricing drop 10%, while the low-end goes up 10%? Absolutely.
All it would take is the fear factor to kick in. Rioting in Kenosha won’t be enough, but if the killing comes to the streets of San Diego and a few homeowners who paid $2,000,000 a few years ago who are listed for $5,000,000 now have to take $4,500,000 to get out, they could do it.
North County Coastal’s gotta be like 30% – 40% above prior peak, right?
The base price for any truly exurban property will continue to rise. Not just demand but they aren’t profitable to build and so aren’t. As you say, north county SD, Moorpark Thousand Oaks Camarillo will see price compression up in the under $800s.