My guess is that NSDCC sales will drop by at least 60% in 2Q20, and our price gauges fall 5% – sellers won’t tolerate any more than that, and they will wait it out instead.
“As has been the case since mid-2019, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in January than they had done in December,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in a release. “Housing prices were particularly strong in the West and South, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.”
Lazzara did make a point to note that all of this data is pre-coronavirus impacts and does not reflect any of the slowdown in both the economy and the housing market. While he did not make any predictions, others say home prices could fall nationally for the first time since the recession.
“We expect a peak-to-trough fall in prices of around 4% by early 2021, with values then flattening out for the rest of the year,” wrote Matthew Pointon, an economist with Capital Economics. “Housing demand will see a sharp decline as unemployment hits record highs, and households are prevented from buying a home due to the shut down of large parts of the economy.”
Pointon says the risk to housing will rise, so buyers’ willingness to pay for a home will fall, and house price expectations will take a hit.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:
The January index is 0.1% higher than it was in July.