The Z Group is probably smart to talk in generalities and just spew the usual stuff about next year – higher prices, tight inventory, and less affordability. They even dropped a ‘priced out completely’ about those in the bottom-third-of-incomes category.
One thing they mentioned that the industry needs to stop saying:
“Qualifying for a mortgage can still be extremely difficult.”
The underwriting guidelines are standard, not difficult – one size fits all, and either you fit or you don’t. Buyers can find ways to fit – if you are self-employed, you can stop taking so many write-offs for one year only and get a Freddie Mac loan.
Three Zillow predictions for next year:
- Affordability will be a major issue in the 2016 presidential election.
- Rents will set new records in 2016.
- The consensus of the 100+ experts they surveyed was 3.5% appreciation
There isn’t much any politician can do about un-affordability except give houses away, which I guess is possible. It’s hard to believe anybody could make a solid case that they deserve to be elected because of their housing policy, so I doubt it will come up much.
Rents around the coast will probably set new records next year.
The 3.5% appreciation kick is probably the safest number available, especially if they are talking about a national stat. It will probably range from -5% to +15% depending on the local area, so 3.5% is comfortable.