The Z Group is probably smart to talk in generalities and just spew the usual stuff about next year – higher prices, tight inventory, and less affordability.  They even dropped a ‘priced out completely’ about those in the bottom-third-of-incomes category.

One thing they mentioned that the industry needs to stop saying:

“Qualifying for a mortgage can still be extremely difficult.”

The underwriting guidelines are standard, not difficult – one size fits all, and either you fit or you don’t. Buyers can find ways to fit – if you are self-employed, you can stop taking so many write-offs for one year only and get a Freddie Mac loan.

Three Zillow predictions for next year:

  1.  Affordability will be a major issue in the 2016 presidential election.
  2. Rents will set new records in 2016.
  3. The consensus of the 100+ experts they surveyed was 3.5% appreciation

There isn’t much any politician can do about un-affordability except give houses away, which I guess is possible.  It’s hard to believe anybody could make a solid case that they deserve to be elected because of their housing policy, so I doubt it will come up much.

Rents around the coast will probably set new records next year.

The 3.5% appreciation kick is probably the safest number available, especially if they are talking about a national stat.  It will probably range from -5% to +15% depending on the local area, so 3.5% is comfortable.

Pin It on Pinterest