Bill Davidson told us a couple years back that we are out of dirt. More on that:
http://ourcitysd.com/what-will-our-housing-market-look-like-in-20-years/
If you think San Diego’s housing market is strained and pricey now, what will it be like in 20 years? Yes, feel free to shudder. No one, of course, can accurately predict that far in advance. There are too many variables at play. But there is one aspect of the current housing market that would seem tough to reverse.
And that’s the ability to build.
For one thing, we have finite developable land, particularly in the city of San Diego. Secondly, a portion of our population appears unwilling to embrace density — at least in their own neighborhoods — which makes it tough on planners and builders to increase supply.
“We’ll be the Bay Area in no time,” said Borre Winckel, president and CEO of the Building Industry Association of San Diego. “We can offer very few product lines for the middle-class buyer.”
San Francisco was once a quirky, counter-cultural city that was home to a bevy of activists, artists and writers. But that city is vanishing because of sky-high housing costs. Now, only the elite can afford to live in the city and, like in Manhattan, low- and middle-income workers are forced to live further afield and make long commutes to their jobs.
San Diego is not far behind. It is already the nation’s fifth most expensive housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only an estimated 25 percent of households can afford the median home price.
Even more troubling, most of the apartment units under construction are higher end, catering to wealthier millennials.
“My lament is that we’re royally screwing the housing opportunity for the middle class and young people,” Winckel said.
San Diego’s population grew by 159,000 people from 2010 to 2014, but the region added only 22,000 housing units in that time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
If that trend continues, experts predict housing prices will continue to rise.
Read full article here:
http://ourcitysd.com/what-will-our-housing-market-look-like-in-20-years/
Supply and demand.
Sure seems like a lot of empty land along the I15 in north county.
10 maybe 20 miles of nothing for the most part.
Yes, but the county’s downzoning 2020 Plan was designed to keep rural areas less dense.
Trying to re-zone for higher density is no easy task:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/land-use/how-lilac-hills-ranch-got-this-far/
Starts to become a issue with Tax revenue or big biz, Zone rules will fall, especially in the rural areas. (maybe a bit harder places like CV or Del Mar).
And the good news is (at least for JTR) the 5th highest property prices have a correlation in the 5th highest estate agent commissions:D! Also a couple of percentage points achieved through clever negotiations can amount to a significant sum of money.
JiJi:
Starts to become a issue with Tax revenue or big biz, Zone rules will fall, especially in the rural areas. (maybe a bit harder places like CV or Del Mar).
I’m disagreein’. Big biz people need to live somewhere. Somewhere like, oh… San Francisco Bay Area? They file class action suits citing environmental protection restraints, and they stop development. Rob Reiner and friends stopped development in it’s tracks in Malibu. He even essentially said at a council meeting, “damned right I want to keep Malibu exclusive!”
Look at the splash screen on that San Francisco whiner video Jim posted. Note they’re sitting on a grassy hill overlooking a Metropolis? Ask yourself why that’s a grassy hill, and not affordable housing, or McMansions on such a prime cut of real estate. Look out by the bridge! Another prime undeveloped area! How could that BE? See above. That’s why you ain’t gonna be seeing no skyscrapers in Santa Barbara. Call it the “integration and affordable housing for thee, but not for me” game.
The residents of these communities know the game, and have played it well for a long time. Especially in northern California.
Rob Reiner’s ilk is fine by me, since I remember California when it was still a wonderland. So just for old times sake, I like seeing “development” take a hosing, even in Malibu. I only drive through there occasionally, but I enjoy what’s left of it when I do. It doesn’t need a shopping mall. All it needs is a baby tsunami to clear my view of the ocean from PCH. I know it would probably kill a lot of popular entertainers, but…
Rich people in California are like Doritos. We’ll make more.