Second Half of 2015

Jim's Take on the Market | North County Coastal | Sales and Price Check

July 2, 2015

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We have entered the second half of 2015 with a full head of steam – in the first half of 2015, NSDCC detached-home sales were up 5% YoY!

Is there a natural cooling off in the second half? Not really.

Second-half sales have been influenced by mortgage rates recently. We had a resurgence in the second half of 2012 when both rates AND prices were declining – sales were 14% higher than in the first half. Once we bounced back over 4% in mid-2013, sales cooled down until rates dipped back into the threes in January of this year.

Here are the half-year stats, starting with a reflection back to 2007, the previous high point of the median sales price:

Half-Year	# of Sales	Median Sales Price	Median Days on Market
1H2007	1,387	$1,000,000	47
2H2007	1,092	$1,000,762	51
1H2012	1,477	$815,000	51
2H2012	1,677	$845,000	44
1H2013	1,670	$919,950	21
2H2013	1,548	$980,000	29
1H2014	1,431	$1,020,000	24
2H2014	1,419	$1,025,000	31
1H2015	1,507	$1,125,000	23

Lately, rates AND prices have been trending upward, which suggests market slowing, plus the inventory is picked over!

Currently, two-thirds of the NSDCC houses for sale have been on the market for more than 30 days, and unless those sellers get aggressive about pricing, sales are likely to taper off as rates and prices stay flat or rise for the rest of 2015.