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rates higher

The NSDCC sales count for April exceeded last year’s number, and prices were slightly higher too.  But the rate of price change has slowed considerably, and if rates bump significantly higher, we should see the market stall out.

NSDCC Sales for April

Year
# of Sales
Avg DOM
Median SP
Avg $/sf
% chg
2012
272
82
$807,500
$365/sf
2013
303
42
$955,000
$420/sf
+15.1%
2014
258
50
$1,052,500
$456/sf
+8.6%
2015
268
49
$1,112,500
$473/sf
+3.7%

In the short-term, there is virtually no chance of prices coming down, because sellers won’t believe it.  Their motivation is already suspect, and when confronted with the choice of lowering their price or waiting longer, virtually all NSDCC sellers will opt for the latter.  It will only be after months and months of trying that they might consider that price is the problem.

This guy doesn’t think the Fed will raise rates in September, and he has been very accurate with his recent predictions. If rates stay around 4% or lower, we should see more soft landing/shambling along, with occasional bidding wars to keep everyone’s interest.

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