Zillow has been accurately predicting the changes in the Case-Shiller Index lately, swamping the boat like most everything else they touch in the industry. The C-S Index is becoming an after-thought for those thirsty for price data.
While the San Diego CSI has been showing a YoY double-digit gain for the last 15 months (including March’s 18.9% and April’s 15.3%), those days are rapidly coming to an end.
Zillow is predicting that their San Diego ZHVI index will show a 12.7% YoY change for May:
It was the rise in mortgage rates about a year ago that helped slow the frenzy conditions, and cause prices to level off. The YoY changes will be catching up, and by the end of summer be back in the single digits – we could even get close to zero.
Yesterday, Professor Shiller hoped that people wouldn’t get too worked up about prices, and I doubt they will. Buyers especially will be happy to tread water as long as prices and rates are both stagnant – which makes it tougher on sellers to sell for their price.
For sellers waiting for the market to top off, I think you can say we are here. Yes, there will be slight appreciation here and there, but you could also get a couple of bad comps around you too.