Dataquick’s April report was released yesterday, and it showed a now-modest 8.7% year-over-year increase in the San Diego County median sales price:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140513.aspx
An excerpt:
“The housing market’s pulse quickened a bit in April. If the inventory grows more, which we consider likely, it’s going to make it a lot easier for sales to reach at least an average level, which we haven’t seen in more than seven years. There are certainly factors undermining housing demand, including affordability constraints, credit challenges and less investment activity. But there are considerable forces fueling demand, too: Employment is rising, families are growing, and more people can qualify to buy again after losing a home to foreclosure or a short sale over the past eight years,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.
At least he mixed in a few of the positives with the typical negative reasons.
The median price is easily skewed just by the lack of cheaper homes for sale. Today there are 2,551 homes listed for sale under the $435,000 median sales price, and 4,638 listed over $435,000. The average list price in San Diego County today is $1,018,616!
The April sales were a result of decisions made in January through March. When breaking down today’s numbers, sellers should be less optimistic. The number of homes not selling has risen 10% in the last month, and asking prices have stalled in the last five weeks:
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/
Data released over the next few months should better reflect a flat pricing trend, at least in San Diego County – let’s just hope it isn’t a flat spin. The lazy reporting could catch people off guard – epsecially sellers who loiter into the summer months before sharpening their pencil.
Average cost-per-sf of SD County detached homes sold since rates went up:
Jun – $295
Jul – $295
Aug – $303
Sep – $309
Oct – $309
Nov – $302
Dec – $303
Jan – $310
Feb – $309
Mar – $317
Apr – $307
The new FHFA honcho is ready to prime the Fannie pump. Looks like the ridiculously tight underwriting standard will loosen. Just in time to get buyers back in the game.
If he softens up on the buybacks, then there’s a chance credit will loosen.
It’s why lenders are so crazy about making borrowers jump through so many hoops, and produce extra documentation – just to ensure they won’t get stuck buying back the loan someday from Fannie/Freddie.
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29988-director-watt-fhfa-wont-shrink-gse-footprint
It looks like they will cut back on the excessive FHA mortgage insurance too:
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29999-new-fha-program-heralded-as-positive-step-towards-easing-credit-crisis
Pardon my French but there’s nothing modest about 8.7% yoy increases from high levels.
Moderating interest rates will hold this permanently high plateau (!) perhaps but going forward continued increases are going to have to be on declining volume and rarefied transactions.
Stay safe Jim.
Agreed, and why I called it ‘now-modest’ because we’ve gotten used to double-digit gains the last year or so.
I think you are right on the money too with declining volume and rarefied transactions. In a ‘Make-Me-Move’ environment, sellers are going to be very reluctant to lower their price.
Which is why the news from the new FHFA chief is so significant. We need a boost, and easier credit will do the trick!