The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
April 29 |
201 |
$384/sf |
36 |
2,599sf |
May 5 |
195 |
$381/sf |
36 |
2,633sf |
May 9 |
207 |
$387/sf |
35 |
2,624sf |
May 18 |
241 |
$397/sf |
33 |
2,566sf |
May 23 |
236 |
$397/sf |
34 |
2,529sf |
May 30 |
230 |
$391/sf |
35 |
2,591sf |
June 5 |
229 |
$393/sf |
35 |
2,577sf |
June 11 |
239 |
$390/sf |
34 |
2,569sf |
June 17 |
246 |
$389/sf |
36 |
2,577sf |
June 24 |
255 |
$397/sf |
36 |
2,535sf |
July 1 |
244 |
$401/sf |
38 |
2,526sf |
July 8 |
256 |
$398/sf |
38 |
2,530sf |
July 15 |
269 |
$403/sf |
38 |
2,486sf |
July 22 |
258 |
$401/sf |
39 |
2,442sf |
July 29 |
262 |
$386/sf |
39 |
2,493sf |
Aug 5 |
287 |
$393/sf |
38 |
2,495sf |
Aug 12 |
300 |
$391/sf |
40 |
2,521sf |
Aug 19 |
304 |
$395/sf |
41 |
2,491sf |
Aug 26 |
308 |
$392/sf |
41 |
2,469sf |
The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
April 29 |
620 |
$806/sf |
94 |
5,183sf |
May 5 |
606 |
$806/sf |
93 |
5,223sf |
May 9 |
628 |
$808/sf |
93 |
5,150sf |
May 18 |
653 |
$807/sf |
92 |
5,161sf |
May 23 |
661 |
$814/sf |
92 |
5,141sf |
May 30 |
659 |
$805/sf |
95 |
5,222sf |
June 5 |
663 |
$794/sf |
96 |
5,185sf |
June 11 |
672 |
$779/sf |
96 |
5,163sf |
June 17 |
661 |
$787/sf |
99 |
5,164sf |
June 24 |
679 |
$791/sf |
98 |
5,097sf |
July 1 |
705 |
$785/sf |
94 |
5,084sf |
July 8 |
702 |
$779/sf |
95 |
5,100sf |
July 15 |
736 |
$776/sf |
94 |
5,038sf |
July 22 |
748 |
$782/sf |
96 |
5,043sf |
July 29 |
736 |
$782/sf |
100 |
5,057sf |
Aug 5 |
754 |
$765/sf |
100 |
5,024sf |
Aug 12 |
750 |
$767/sf |
102 |
5,032sf |
Aug 19 |
742 |
$769/sf |
104 |
5,009sf |
Aug 26 |
740 |
$781/sf |
106 |
4,962sf |
The market looks healthy – no rush of new listings lately, and new pendings have increased the last two weeks:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Jim — Absolutely love reading your blog. Also saw your piece on Leucadia homes new on Neptune. Very interesting. What is your sense on beachside/rental communities like the ones along solana beach, seabluff in leucadia, etc.? understand they may be attracting more of the investor type crowd as opposed to the owner-occupied but do you think that market has already run up a lot and maybe has more potential to fall / atleast move sideways for next year espeically now with higher rates than before? thanks.
Unless rents continue higher at a thundering pace, the investors for beach properties are probably done.
Thankfully there are rich folks from around the world who have kept coming here to purchase properties west of I-5.
I think the decked-out superior high-end homes will continue up in price, and the rest will slack off – it will be two distinct markets.
The dual-immersion program at Capri and Paul Ecke Elementary schools is going to keep families wondering if a Leucadia beach property is for them, but the retirees will love the one-story homes, and skew the market/pricing further.
These rates aren’t going to matter to rich folks.
Interesting to read that higher end will do well in coastal-rental market. If I read that to be > 1.2mm (maybe it is really > 3mm if they are the “decked out” ones you mention), this would seem to indicate the opposite of what the recent stats have shown so far in your blog – meaning a healthier active / pending ratio so far in sub 1.2mm versus > 1.2mm. Perhaps the low end condos in solana beach ( 1mm, the vacation rental occupancy starts to become an issue.
Just trying to explore this topic further, pls let me know if I am not thinking about this the right way, thanks.
Let’s take the price out of the equation and just say that it will be a superior-property market.
The biggest reason is because the sellers of inferior properties have enjoyed a tight gap between them and superior properties in the frenzy – buyers were so ganked up that they paid nearly the same for both.
Look for that gap to widen considerably over the rest of the year.
The higher inventories are because of over-priced homes, not more houses for sale. The stats will struggle to reflect the market accurately.
Specifically, number of NSDCC detached homes listed between Aug 1 and Aug 21:
2012: 273
2013: 275
LP avg $/sf
2012: $479/sf
2013: $542/sf (+13%)
There are more active (unsold) listings lying around because sellers listed too high, and are reluctant to lower. Buyers are getting smarter too.