Inventory Watch – Steady

Written by Jim the Realtor

August 26, 2013

The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
April 29
201
$384/sf
36
2,599sf
May 5
195
$381/sf
36
2,633sf
May 9
207
$387/sf
35
2,624sf
May 18
241
$397/sf
33
2,566sf
May 23
236
$397/sf
34
2,529sf
May 30
230
$391/sf
35
2,591sf
June 5
229
$393/sf
35
2,577sf
June 11
239
$390/sf
34
2,569sf
June 17
246
$389/sf
36
2,577sf
June 24
255
$397/sf
36
2,535sf
July 1
244
$401/sf
38
2,526sf
July 8
256
$398/sf
38
2,530sf
July 15
269
$403/sf
38
2,486sf
July 22
258
$401/sf
39
2,442sf
July 29
262
$386/sf
39
2,493sf
Aug 5
287
$393/sf
38
2,495sf
Aug 12
300
$391/sf
40
2,521sf
Aug 19
304
$395/sf
41
2,491sf
Aug 26
308
$392/sf
41
2,469sf

The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
April 29
620
$806/sf
94
5,183sf
May 5
606
$806/sf
93
5,223sf
May 9
628
$808/sf
93
5,150sf
May 18
653
$807/sf
92
5,161sf
May 23
661
$814/sf
92
5,141sf
May 30
659
$805/sf
95
5,222sf
June 5
663
$794/sf
96
5,185sf
June 11
672
$779/sf
96
5,163sf
June 17
661
$787/sf
99
5,164sf
June 24
679
$791/sf
98
5,097sf
July 1
705
$785/sf
94
5,084sf
July 8
702
$779/sf
95
5,100sf
July 15
736
$776/sf
94
5,038sf
July 22
748
$782/sf
96
5,043sf
July 29
736
$782/sf
100
5,057sf
Aug 5
754
$765/sf
100
5,024sf
Aug 12
750
$767/sf
102
5,032sf
Aug 19
742
$769/sf
104
5,009sf
Aug 26
740
$781/sf
106
4,962sf

The market looks healthy – no rush of new listings lately, and new pendings have increased the last two weeks:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
May 30
70
84
June 5
87
64
June 11
77
69
June 17
73
66
June 24
100
69
July 1
86
64
July 8
81
53
July 15
106
54
July 22
105
89
July 29
71
74
Aug 5
105
64
Aug 12
77
61
Aug 19
88
73
Aug 26
87
77

5 Comments

  1. ocr

    Jim — Absolutely love reading your blog. Also saw your piece on Leucadia homes new on Neptune. Very interesting. What is your sense on beachside/rental communities like the ones along solana beach, seabluff in leucadia, etc.? understand they may be attracting more of the investor type crowd as opposed to the owner-occupied but do you think that market has already run up a lot and maybe has more potential to fall / atleast move sideways for next year espeically now with higher rates than before? thanks.

  2. Jim the Realtor

    Unless rents continue higher at a thundering pace, the investors for beach properties are probably done.

    Thankfully there are rich folks from around the world who have kept coming here to purchase properties west of I-5.

    I think the decked-out superior high-end homes will continue up in price, and the rest will slack off – it will be two distinct markets.

    The dual-immersion program at Capri and Paul Ecke Elementary schools is going to keep families wondering if a Leucadia beach property is for them, but the retirees will love the one-story homes, and skew the market/pricing further.

    These rates aren’t going to matter to rich folks.

  3. ocr

    Interesting to read that higher end will do well in coastal-rental market. If I read that to be > 1.2mm (maybe it is really > 3mm if they are the “decked out” ones you mention), this would seem to indicate the opposite of what the recent stats have shown so far in your blog – meaning a healthier active / pending ratio so far in sub 1.2mm versus > 1.2mm. Perhaps the low end condos in solana beach ( 1mm, the vacation rental occupancy starts to become an issue.

    Just trying to explore this topic further, pls let me know if I am not thinking about this the right way, thanks.

  4. Jim the Realtor

    Let’s take the price out of the equation and just say that it will be a superior-property market.

    The biggest reason is because the sellers of inferior properties have enjoyed a tight gap between them and superior properties in the frenzy – buyers were so ganked up that they paid nearly the same for both.

    Look for that gap to widen considerably over the rest of the year.

    The higher inventories are because of over-priced homes, not more houses for sale. The stats will struggle to reflect the market accurately.

  5. Jim the Realtor

    Specifically, number of NSDCC detached homes listed between Aug 1 and Aug 21:

    2012: 273
    2013: 275

    LP avg $/sf

    2012: $479/sf
    2013: $542/sf (+13%)

    There are more active (unsold) listings lying around because sellers listed too high, and are reluctant to lower. Buyers are getting smarter too.

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