From HW:
It seems Americans are growing more optimistic about the state of housing, as more than half of Americans now expect the country’s home prices to appreciate within the next year, Fannie Mae reports.
Those results came from Fannie Mae’s April 2013 National Housing Survey, which revealed the share of respondents who anticipate a price increase rose 3 percentage points, bringing the April total to 51%.
Those who believe home prices will drop remained at the survey low of 10% for the fourth consecutive month.
“For the first time in the survey’s three-year history, the majority of Americans surveyed now expect home prices to increase,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist and senior vice president. Duncan notes that crossing the 50% threshold marks a significant milestone as most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country.
The number of respondents who says now is the time to sell rose 4 percentage points in April to 30%. This compares to 15% at the same time last year.
“Reflecting that increased optimism toward housing, the share of Americans who think it is a good time to sell has doubled during the last year. Many homeowners who have been underwater are gradually returning to positive equity, and selling is now becoming an available and attractive option again,” said Duncan.
The increasing optimism toward the selling market may be a good sign of continued improvement in housing activity, as recent market data suggest that five out of eight people who buy a home first have to sell, says Fannie Mae.
The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up fell 3 percentage points to 43%, while those who say they will go down rose slightly to 7%.
Of those surveyed, 65% said they would buy if they were going to move. The number of respondents who say home rental prices will go up in the next year dropped 2 percentage points from last month’s survey high, totaling 48% of those surveyed.
At 39%, the share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track increased 4 percentage points over March.
An encouraging 20% of respondents said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, holding steady from last month.
http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/05/07/majority-surveyed-americans-expect-home-prices-rise
I hope the party lasts a couple more years.
For the first time in San Diego, we may see avg single family homes in areas other than coastal and CV going for $1M+ – $1.2M i.e. 4s, PQ, Scripps, Sabre Springs,
Agreed, and a million dollars doesn’t buy what it used to!
$1M Sales in SDCo between Jan-April
2012 – 454 sales @ $515/sf and avg 3,859sf
2013 – 654 sales @ $525/sf and avg 3,635sf
44% increase in # of sales
I hope the party lasts a couple more years.
It’s not a party for the analytical, logic-driven buyers who keep getting smoked by people who are more frustrated and pay crazy money to win bidding wars, regardless of verifiable value.
For sellers, it’s a party.
The data metrics still indicate fair value, no? No low end overshoot and higher than last year for sure, but still at the beginning stages of a recovery. That’s all you can really shoot for when buying a home with a long time perspective – get the timing semi-right and pay retail for what you like the best within your budget.
The million dollar question is what happens with rates?
It appears the velocity of resale homes on the market has increased, but demand is able to gobble it up. What hasn’t shown up yet are new developments in the area, that will change in 2013. I count 4-7 new communities popping up in 92127, from Standard Pacific, Brookfield, Lennar and a couple others. Will they set the standard for new pricing, pushing resale even higher. Or will these new homes, with phased out releases, increase supply and lower demand?
Some analysts are reporting rates to be at mid 4’s by Q4 of 2013, not sure if this believable, as the rest of the country is just coming out of hibernation with housing. And any barrier to housing affordability will stop this rally and risk further damage to the greater economy and employment rates.
But if rates hit the 4’s I think we will not be seeing 20% pricing gains…probably teens.
How can rates go up when you have the central bank committed to buy all the treasuries necessary to keep them low?
If rates go up substantially our party is over.
Get use to zero percent on your savings account.
Party? Continuing low rates are indicative of a weak national economy. What kind of party is that?
If this is a party, 95% of the population isn’t invited.
Well I’d like to change that for 60% of the population.
I hereby invite all homeowners to join the party and sell your house today, and cash in on the frenzy.
For those around NSDCC, you can get very close to, or exceed peak pricing. Join the party!
I think there will be a pull back by the end of the year as the short rally is stalled by unemployment. Many companies are getting under the 50 employee and 30/hours per week emplyee to avoid new regulations.
New homes will hopefully fill the demand.
93% of people around here are employed, and there are 5-10 buyers for every decent house for sale.
Pullback more likely to be caused by buyers saying “enough is enough” to outrageous list prices.
Being employed — even well employed — isn’t enough. Just like with the articles Jim has posted, I’ve got several well-paid, highly qualified friends/co-workers that can’t land a place. Cash is king these days, and you have to be pretty well-heeled to buy with cash.