Thanks to Stormin for sending in this post from Bill at CR:
I think Professor Shiller has changed his view … writing in the NY Times: Before Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever
“With rates now relatively low, this could be an auspicious time to buy a house with a fixed-rate mortgage. That could make good sense for people who aren’t out to bet on the housing or mortgage markets but are instead focused on settling into a home for the long term.”
It might be an “auspicious” time to buy … if someone can find a home for sale (there is so little inventory in many areas).
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/shiller-on-housing-could-be-auspicious.html#cDUgYgbgQI4qOOo0.99
Day late and a dollar short?
hey jim,
Is there anyway possible to actually know if a homeowner is not making mortgage payments without any kind of public notice from a trustee such as the notice of default?
The doom and gloomers keep talking about all this shadow inventory.
I am wondering how many people are sitting in homes not making payments but there is no public record unless the trustee records something.
You can pay for data on mortgage delinquencies – the credit bureaus are happy to sell it. I’ve seen the lists a couple of times, and it’s a pretty low number, and few of the superior properties are on it.
But the servicers have to report the delinquencies.
If they were as sinister as believed, the banks might conspire to not report delinquencies – then nobody would know. Or they might just forget?
Nothing we haven’t said here before.
Expecting that house prices will continue to move inversely with interest rates the only risk is ever having to sell. I’d definitely buy a house if I considered it my forever place.
Shiller and tj & the bear declaring that this is a good time to buy on the same day!!
This is the bottom!!
BTW, this already sold: http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/cto/3747490885.html
Those blazers are awesome. my dad had one back in the 70’s.
As far as the mortgage delinquency data, is that really data available to the general public? seems like they would not just release that information to anyone.
I wonder why no one is really reporting those numbers?
They will give to anyone who wants to buy it. It’s not cheap.
Perma-Bears getting bullish. I thought that was the time to worry. Still haven’t seen a slow down in sales yet so I wouldn’t be too worried.
That’s not bullish, it’s simple math. If rates rise and housing prices fall commensurately then your payment’s the same and you still pay it off in 30 years.
I’ll be bullish when prices have hit bottom, but at present it’s rates that are closer to the bottom instead.