San Diego Case-Shiller Index, non-seasonally-adjusted (SA was also +8%):
November 2011: 151.45
November 2012: 163.58
Year-Over-Year Change: +8%
From the S&P press release:
“Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat.
Regional patterns are shifting as well. The Southwest – Las Vegas and Phoenix – are staging a strong comeback with the Southeast — Miami and Tampa close behind. The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat.
“Housing is clearly recovering. Prices are rising as are both new and existing home sales. Existing home sales in November were 5.0 million, highest since November 2009. New Home sales at 398,000 were the highest since June 2010. These figures confirm that housing is contributing to economic growth.
The Case-Shiller process screens out any properties re-sold within six months. Because of market efficiencies, most flippers aren’t included in their +8% year-over-year calculation. For the 200 properties he sold last year, J. Mann’s average was 16 days on market.
“Housing is clearly recovering”, David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indexes, said in a statement.
“There’s a lot of momentum,” he added during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “It shows up in all the housing statistics, not just the prices. As far as I can see it’s going to continue well into the new year.”
The spread between historically low interest rates and the money that real estate generates is “truly astonishing,” Starwood Capital Group Chairman and CEO Barry Sternlicht told CNBC on Tuesday.
“You can buy assets below replacement costs still,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “You can finance them with positive leverage — meaning the cost of borrowing is much lower than the yield on the property.”
Sternlicht pointed out, “Never seen it in my career. It’s truly astonishing. This is the ‘Goldilocks Period’ for real estate.”
For people looking to buy or sell a home, he predicted, “You’re not going to see housing prices runaway. I think they’ll continue at a really modest three to four percent annual growth now.”